Prop*50

AZ Prop. 112 heads to a recount

The "no" side leads "yes" by just 128 votes on Arizona's Proposition 112, which automatically triggers a recount of the vote.  The most recent tally on the Secretary of State's web site is 792,697 for Prop. 112, and 792,825 against.  State law requires a recount if the margin is less than 200 votes.

Proposition 112, proposed by the Legislature, would move the deadline for submitting initiative petitions from four to six months before the election.  Proponents say that the current deadline does not allow enough time for election officials to properly verify signatures, or for legal challenges to be resolved.  No arguments against the proposition were submitted for the state's official voter guide.

The recount will begin soon after the official canvass of the election is released on November 29, and is expected to take about 10 business days to complete.  It will be conducted by county election officials, using the same voting equipment voters originally used to cast their ballots.

Maryland: What's up with the con-con?

While it appeared yesterday that Maryland voters had surprised us all by approving a constitutional convention, which would have made them the first state to hold a constitutional convention in over 20 years, it appears that is not the case. 

Why the confusion?  It lies in the vote threshold a ballot measure must achieve in order to pass.  In most states, it's a simple majority of the ballots cast on the measure.  But in Maryland and a handful of other states, the measure must receive votes from a majority of those voting in the election. 

According to the current tally, 1,737,134 ballots were cast in the governor's race, but only 1,544,826 of those voters also cast a vote on the constitutional convention question.  Therefore, in order to be approved, the constitutional convention question would have to have received at least 868,568 "yes" votes.  It received 843,273.  While that is a majority of the 1,544,826 votes cast on the question, it is not a majority of the 1,737,134 votes cast in the election. 

So it appears now that Maryland will not be the next state to hold a constitutional convention after all.

Too close to call

Results are still trickling in, and contests for nine ballot measures remain too close to call.

• Arizona:  99% of precincts have reported, and three measures are still hanging by a thread. Proposition 110, a legislative referendum dealing with state trust lands, is at 49.81%.  Proposition 112, changing the deadline for submitting initiative petition signatures, is at 49.93%.  Proposition 203, an initiative to legalize medical marijuana, is at 49.75%.
• Georgia:  With 97% of precincts reporting, Amendment 3 is at 49.9%.  It would allow the state to enter into multi-year contracts for long-term transportation projects.
• Maine:  With 93.2% of the vote in, a casino initiative is teetering at 50.4%.
• Nebraska:  99.76% of precincts have reported, and Amendment 1, would permit municipalities to use additional fund sources for economic development projects.  It's at 50.6%.
• New Mexico:  Bond Proposition D, a higher education capital projects bond, is at 49.8% with 31 of 33 counties reporting.
• Washington:  Initiative 1100, one of two initiatives proposing the privatization of liquor sales, has 48.1% of the vote.  And SJR 8225, a legislative proposal dealing with state debt authority, has 51.1%. All but one county in Washington voted by mail yesterday, and ballots had to be postmarked, not received, by election day.  That means ballots will continue to trickle in over the next few days, and it could be as long as a week before we can be reasonably certain about results.

Election results: Stats

• Number of statewide measures on the ballot:  160
• Number that came from legislatures:  113
• Number of legislative referenda approved:  80-86 (6 remain too close to call)
• Percentage of legislative referenda approved:  70.8 - 76.1%
• Percentage of legislative referenda approved in 2008:  72.6%
• Number of initiatives on the ballot:  42
• Number of initiatives approved:  18-21 (3 remain too close to call)
• Percentage of initaitives approved:  42.9 - 50%
• Percentage of initiatives approved in 2008:  42.4%

Election results: the rest

Global warming:  California voters have rejected Proposition 23.  Sponsored largely by oil companies, it sought to suspend the state's clean air laws until the state's unemployment rate -- currently at more than 12% -- drops to 5.5% and stays there for a full year.

Health care choice:  Voters in Colorado rejected Amendment 63, while Arizona and Oklahoma voters approved attempts to block implementation of federal health care reform in their states.

Abortion:  Colorado voters have again rejected a "personhood" amendment.  It would have banned all forms of abortion in the state.  Voters gave a very similar measure just 26.7% of the vote in 2008; this year's version got 29.6%.

Affirmative action:  Arizona voters have approved an anti-affirmative action measure similar to those passed in California (1996), Michigan (2006), Nebraska (2008) and Washington (1998).  Colorado was the first state to reject such a measure, back in 2008.

State government:  Arizona voters rejected a move to rename the office of secretary of state as the office of the lieutenant governor.  Nebraska voters said no to the idea of abolishing the office of treasurer.  Oklahoma voters approved a measure limiting most statewide officeholders to no more than eight years in office.  The legislature already had term limits in Oklahoma.

Payday lenders:  Montana voters approved a cap on the fees and interest rates payday lenders may charge.

Courts:  In Oklahoma, voters have approved an amendment that prohibits courts from relying on Sharia or international law in deciding cases.  They also agreed to expand the Judicial Nominating Commission from 13 to 15 members.  Maryland voters said yes to a proposal specifying that Baltimore Orphans' Court judges must be members in good standing of the Maryland Bar.  Nevada voters rejected two measures dealing with the judiciary:  Question 1 would have moved the state from a process of electing supreme court justices and district court judges to an appointment process with retention elections.  Question 2 would have provided for an intermediate appellate court, to be known as the Nevada Court of Appeals.

Military and veterans affairs:  Voters in seven states considered eight measures in this category.  In all cases, the measures provided an expansion of benefits for war veterans, from tax credits or exemptions in Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico and Virginia, to aid with home ownership in Alaska and Oregon.  New Mexico voters also approved a college scholarship program for veterans.

Election results: Votes on voting, redistricting, I&R process, campaign finance

Voters around the country faced a wide array of statewide ballot questions dealing with elections yesterday.  Among the more high-profile questions were the Illinois vote on creating a process to recall the governor, the Oklahoma proposal to require that voters show photo identification at the polls, and Vermont's plan to let certain 17 year-olds vote in primary elections.  With the passage of these three measures, Illinois becomes the 19th state with a recall process for the governor; Oklahoma becomes the 27th voter ID state, and among the 27, the ninth to require that the ID shows a photo of the voter; and Vermont becomes the 12th state to allow a 17 year-old to vote in the primary if s/he will turn 18 before the general election.

Voters in Arizona, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah approved guarantees that ballots are secret.  The questions in AZ and SC pertain only to labor union elections, but those in SD and UT apply both to state and union elections.

In Michigan and North Carolina, voters agreed that felons should not be eligible to hold public office.  Michigan's new constitutional provision prohibits anyone convicted of a felony related to a public office from running for office again for 20 years, while North Carolina's bans felons from serving as sheriff.

Redistricting:  In California, voters were decisive about who they wanted in charge of redistricting.  They approved Prop. 20, transferring responsibility for Congressional redistricting from the legislature to the independent commission approved by voters in 2008.  They also rejected Prop. 27, which would have dissolved that commission.  Florida voters were equally emphatic about reducing the legislature's role in redistricting:  Amendments 5 and 6 outline standards the legislature must follow in conducting legislative and congressional redistricting.  Both were approved with more than 62 percent of the vote.  In Oklahoma, voters agreed to change the name and composition of their state's apportionment commission.

Initiative Process:  In Arizona, a proposal to change the date by which initiative petitions must be filed with the state for signature verification is polling too close to call.  It's at 49.9% with 99% of ballots counted.  Prop. 112 would move the deadline from four to six months before the election, giving officials more time to validate signatures.  In Oklahoma, voters have approved a change in the basis for calculating signature requirements for initiatives.  It will have the effect of evening out signature requirements from year to year, removing the sharp rise in required signatures after a presidential election.

Campaign Finance:  Because Florida requires a 60% vote to approve a constitutional amendment, voters have rejected Amendment 1, which has a "yes" vote of 52.5%.  That proposal would have done away with the state's public campaign finance option available for statewide candidates.  Florida is one of 25 states with public financing for state candidates.

Election results: Legislatures on the ballot

Size and Sessions:  The Oregon Legislature will start meeting in regular session in even years in 2012.  Oregon had been one of five state legislatures that met only in odd years.  The news wasn't so good in Alaska though, where voters rejected a proposal to increase the size of the legislature by 10%.

Votes in the Legislature:  Voters sent a mixed message in California, decreasing the vote requirement to pass the budget from 2/3 to a simple majority, but also expanding an existing 2/3 requirement to include votes on regulatory fees.  Washington voters rejected the legislature's hope that they could approve tax increases with a simple majority vote in 2011, and instead have returned them to a 2/3 requirement that had been temporarily suspend for 2010-2011.

Ethics:  Utah voters approved the creation of a legislative ethics commission.  Because this legislative proposal creates a commission via the state constitution, it has the effect of blocking a citizen initiative that's been in the works for the past couple of years.  The initiative can't be used to amend the constitution in Utah.

Election results: Bond measures

Voters are typically very receptive to statewide bonding proposals, approving upwards of 90% of those that appear on ballots.  This tends to hold true even in years when the economy is weak:  in 2009, every bond on a statewide ballot was approved, and in 2008, all but one was approved.

This year, the total proposed bonding was the lowest it has ever been in an even-year general election in NCSL's records, which go back to 1992.  This year's total was just under $1.9 billion.  (The total is typically much lower in odd-year elections, when most states prohibit votes on statewide ballot measures.)

So far, just one bond proposal is failing:  Washington's $505 million proposal to improve energy efficiency in school buildings.  Proposal D in New Mexico, a higher education capital improvement proposal, is currently too close to call at 5:45am MDT -- it's got 49.9% of the vote, with 31 out of 33 counties reporting results.

No new revenue for you!

Voters rejected every proposed revenue increase on statewide ballots this November 2.  A full run-down of these measures:

California:  Voters rejected an estimated in $3.3 billion in additional revenue when they turned down Proposition 19 (legalizing the use of marijuana & permitting taxation of its sale), Proposition 21 ($18 surcharge on motor vehicle registrations to fund wildlife and state parks), and Proposition 24 (repeal of a business tax cut).

Georgia:  Amendment 2 would have imposed a $10 surcharge on motor vehicle registrations, with the money going toward an expansion of trauma programs in the state.

Washington:  Initiative 1098 would have imposed a tax on incomes of $200,000 or more for single filers and $400,000 or more for joint filers.  It would have raised an estimated $11.2 billion over five years, with some of the revenue going to offset cuts in the state property tax and the business & occupations tax, and the remainder going toward health and education programs.

Even tougher budget year ahead in some states

Thanks to the results on a handful of key ballot measures, legislatures are going to have an even tougher time than they anticipated balancing state budgets in some states.

Arizona:  The rejection of Propositions 301 and 302 mean that a budget deficit estimated at $825 million back in September is now something more like $1.3 billion.

California:  The combined fiscal impact of the passage of Props. 22 and 26 is a negative $2 billion, and Prop. 26 will make it more difficult for the legislature to increase regulatory fees starting next year.

Florida:  Voters refused to go along with the legislature's idea to modify class size requirements.  Approved by voters back in 2002 as an amendment to the state's constitution, Florida's limits on the size of classes for K-12 schools is expected to cost the state as much as $40 billion to implement over the next decade.  The state had budgeted $2.9 billion for the 2010-2011 fiscal year for this program.

Missouri:  With the approval of Proposition A, cities in Missouri are now prohibited from implementing an earnings tax.  In the two cities that already have one -- Kansas City and St. Louis -- voters will have to approve the continuation of that tax in another vote in 2011.  If they reject their earnings tax, it will be phased out over 10 years and can never be re-implemented.  If they vote to continue it, similar votes must come every five years thereafter.  In Kansas City, MO, the earnings tax generates just under $200 million, which is about 40% of the city's budget.  In St. Louis, it generates about $140 million, or one-third of the city's budget.

Oregon:  Voters approved Measure 73, a mandatory minimum sentencing law for sex offenders and drunken drivers.   It's estimated that it will cost $1.4 million in the first year, growing to $29.1 million in the fourth year.  Measure 73 did not provide for a new revenue stream to fund its costs.

Washington:  Voters gave the budget a double wallop with the passage of Initiatives 1053 and 1107.  Passing I-1107 means that tax increases passed by the legislature in 2009 are repealed, a loss of $352 million to the state budget and $83 million to local governments over the next five years.  I-1053 returns the legislature to a 2/3 vote requirement to pass tax increases during the 2011 session, meaning the process of balancing the budget next year will be more difficult than it would have been had the simple majority requirement stayed in effect through next July.

Better news:  Legislatures in Colorado and Massachusetts got somewhat better news about the budget-balancing task ahead of them:  Colorado voters rejected a trio of initiatives that would have resulted in the state spending an estimated 99% of its general fund on K-12 education by the time the three were fully implemented in a decade or so.  Massachusetts voters rejected an initiative that would have cut the state sales tax rate by more than half, costing the state an estimated $2.5 billion annually.