Initiative proposals to legalize the sale and use of marijuana for anyone aged 21 or older are on the ballot in Colorado, Oregon and Washington this November 6. California voters rejected a similar proposal in November 2010 - that measure got a 46.5% "yes" vote. Current polling data shows that the proposals in Colorado and Washington stand a decent chance of passage on Election Day.
SurveyUSA released a poll on October 15 showing support for Colorado's Amendment 64 at 48 percent, with 43 percent opposed and nine percent undecided. That poll has a margin of error of +/-4%. Support is down from 51 percent in a poll conducted a month ago. According to the Denver Post, the swing is largely attributed to a change in attitudes among women. In the September poll, Amendment 64 held a 49 - 39 lead among women. Yesterday's poll, however, shows a a nine-point drop in support among women -- they are now at 48 - 40 opposed.
Two September polls in Washington show that state's marijuana legalization measure with a comfortable lead. A SurveyUSA poll put support at 57 percent, while an Elway poll put support at 50 percent. The Elway poll also showed a larger group of undecided voters: 12 percent, compared to nine percent in the SurveyUSA poll. An earlier Elway poll conducted in July found support at 46 percent.
Oregon's legalization measure appears to be polling weaker than its counterparts in Colorado and Washington. In a mid-September SurveyUSA poll, it was supported by 37 percent and opposed by 41 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error. The Oregonian points out that the chief proponent of the Oregon proposal has been controversial in that state, and his measure is also pulling in less campaign money than the measures in the other two states.
In California, support for Proposition 19 hovered around the 50 percent mark in mid-September 2010, and declined into the mid-40s throughout October. Given that pattern and the eventual "no" vote on that measure on Election Day, Washington's marijuana legalization probably stands the best chance among the three of passing this year.