Prop*50

New polls on key measures

By Jennie Drage Bowser

Election day is right around the corner, with the first polling places opening in just over 24 hours. Let's take one last look at the polling data before the election results start trickling in.

Marriage

Thirty-two states have voted on same-sex marriage over the past decade and a half, and all 32 have voted against it. Two weeks ago, all signs were pointing toward a big change in this pattern this year. While some margins have tightened, it still looks likely that voters in at least one state will approve same-sex marriage on Tuesday. Passage appears near-certain in Washington, with smaller majorities favoring legalizing in Maine and Maryland. The Minnesota question remains in a statistical tie.

State	October Poll	September Poll
Maine	52% favor legalizing 45% oppose legalizing 3% undecided November 2 poll	57% favor legalizing 36% oppose legalizing 7% undecided September 30 poll
Maryland	55% favor legalizing 39% oppose legalizing 6% undecided October 29 poll	51% favor legalizing 43% oppose legalizing 6% undecided September 26 poll
Minnesota	47% oppose banning SS marriage 48% favor banning SS marriage 5% undecided October 28 poll	47% oppose banning SS marriage 49% favor banning SS marriage 4% undecided September 24 poll
Washington	58% favor legalizing 37% oppose legalizing 5% undecided November 1 poll	52% favor legalizing 40% oppose legalizing 8% undecided Mid-September poll

Drug Policy

Three states will vote on the sale, possession, and use of limited amounts of marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. Among the three, Washington voters are the most likely to approve legalization.

• Colorado:  50% yes / 44% no, according to a November 4 poll by the  Denver Post
• Oregon: 49% yes / 42% no, according to an October 29 poll by The Oregonian
• Washington: 55.4% yes / 37.6% no, according to a November 1 poll by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer
  

Legalizing pot: what the polls say

 By Jennie Drage Bowser

Initiative proposals to legalize the sale and use of marijuana for anyone aged 21 or older are on the ballot in Colorado, Oregon and Washington this November 6. California voters rejected a similar proposal in November 2010 - that measure got a 46.5% "yes" vote. Current polling data shows that the proposals in Colorado and Washington stand a decent chance of passage on Election Day.

SurveyUSA released a poll on October 15 showing support for Colorado's Amendment 64 at 48 percent, with 43 percent opposed and nine percent undecided. That poll has a margin of error of +/-4%. Support is down from 51 percent in a poll conducted a month ago. According to the Denver Post, the swing is largely attributed to a change in attitudes among women. In the September poll, Amendment 64 held a 49 - 39 lead among women. Yesterday's poll, however, shows a a nine-point drop in support among women -- they are now at 48 - 40 opposed.

Two September polls in Washington show that state's marijuana legalization measure with a comfortable lead. A SurveyUSA poll put support at 57 percent, while an Elway poll put support at 50 percent. The Elway poll also showed a larger group of undecided voters:  12 percent, compared to nine percent in the SurveyUSA poll. An earlier Elway poll conducted in July found support at 46 percent.

Oregon's legalization measure appears to be polling weaker than its counterparts in Colorado and Washington. In a mid-September SurveyUSA poll, it was supported by 37 percent and opposed by 41 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error.  The Oregonian points out that the chief proponent of the Oregon proposal has been controversial in that state, and his measure is also pulling in less campaign money than the measures in the other two states.

In California, support for Proposition 19 hovered around the 50 percent mark in mid-September 2010,  and declined into the mid-40s throughout October. Given that pattern and the eventual  "no" vote on that measure on Election Day, Washington's marijuana legalization probably stands the best chance among the three of passing this year.

Election Results: Drugs, Tobacco and Alcohol

It has not been a good night for proponents of legalizing marijuana.  The one possible bright spot is Arizona, where a measure to legalize marijuana for medical purposes is teetering in the balance:  as of 12:25am MDT and with 92% of the ballots counted, it's got 49.7% of the vote.  The trend has been inching toward passage all night, but it has not yet topped the 50% mark:

Time	9:15pm MDT	10:02pm MDT	10:49pm MDT	12:25am MDT
% ballots counted	10%	44%	69%	92%
“Yes” vote	46.01%	49.08%	49.46%	49.70%

A medical marijuana proposal has failed to pass in South Dakota.  South Dakota has now rejected medical marijuana twice -- the first time was back in 2006, when a measure very similar to this year's proposal received 47.7% of the vote.  So far, South Dakota is the only state where voters have rejected medical marijuana.  Of course, Arizona may well become the second state tonight if that "yes" vote cannot surpass the 50% mark.

California's Proposition 19, which would have legalized the use of marijuana for anyone age 21 or older and allowed state and local governments to tax the sale of marijuana, is currently pulling just 43.6% of the vote.  Don't look for this issue to wither away though -- proponents in Colorado and Nevada are already talking about circulating petitions for the 2012 ballot.  If young people and Democrats voted in strong numbers for this measure, it will likely appear on more ballots in 2012 in an effort to sway voter turnout in Democrats' favor.

Alcohol - Voters in Massachusetts have rejected a sales tax on alcohol.  Passed by the Legislature in 2009, all of the revenue from this tax went into a fund for drug and alcohol treatment programs.  In Washington, voters appear to be rejecting both measures that proposed privatizing the sale of alcohol.  Initiative 1105 is clearly failing (that's the version that favored wholesalers).  Initiative 1100 (favoring retailers) is somewhat closer at 48.1% "yes" votes.  All but one county in Washington voted by mail yesterday, and ballots merely had to be postmarked by election day, rather than in the hands of election officials.  That means results will continue to trickle in over the next few days in Washington.  I-1100 is one that has the potential to tip in the other direction.

Tobacco - Voters have approved an expansion of South Dakota's smoking ban.

Read more about drug, alcohol and tobacco measures on NCSL's StateVote 2010 page.

 

More pot legalization votes in 2012?

As California voters make up their minds on Proposition 19, which would legalize the use of marijuana by any adult and allow state and local government to tax marijuana sales, speculation is beginning to swirl over whether this issue will retain its energy enough to crop up on ballots in other states in 2012.

The legalization of marijuana tends to be viewed more favorably by Democrats and by younger voters, who in the recent past have leaned more toward Democratic candidates than Republicans (68 percent of voters aged 18-29 voted for Obama in 2008, for example). 

A late October poll conducted by SurveyUSA in Colorado found that marijuana legalization was favored by 46 percent of Coloradans and opposed by 43 percent.  Given those numbers, don't be surprised if a Proposition 19-like initiative appears on the Colorado ballot in 2012.  The goal would be -- besides legalizing marijuana, of course -- tilting voter turnout toward Democrats on the ballot.

This is a strategy that gained traction in 2004 with same-sex marriage appearing on the ballot in 13 states.  The presence of that question on the Ohio ballot that year is widely credited with influencing voter turnout in favor of Republicans and tipping the scales in the presidential race to George Bush.

Will legalizing pot be the same-sex marriage of the 2012 elections?  Clues will start to trickle in by late 2011, as initiative filing begins around the country.

Update!  A new Gallup poll released today shows that it's not just Coloradans who are taking more positive views toward legalizing pot:  support nationwide is up 10 points since 2006, with 46 percent of Americans now saying they support legalization and half saying they oppose it.  The Gallup poll supports the idea that Democrats and young people are more likely to support legalization, as are voters in the western U.S. (where most of the initiative states happen to be too).   Support is lowest in the South and among Republican, conservative voters and those age 65 and older.

This gives us all the more reason to believe that advocates will seize on this issue and hope to push their cause onto statewide ballots around the country in 2012, and that left-leaning groups will aid in that push in hopes that support for marijuana on statewide ballots might spill over and benefit their candidates.

Oregon: 2 initiatives qualify for the ballot

The Oregon secretary of state announced today that two initiatives have qualified for the ballot:

• Petition 13 would impose mandatory minimum sentences for certain felony sex crimes and DUI convictions.  It's sponsor is former legislator Kevin Mannix, who has sponsored a number of anti-crime initiatives in Oregon.  Most recently, he sponsored Measures 60 and 61 in 2008, both of which failed to pass.
• Petition 28 would allow the creation of dispensaries to sell medical marijuana.  The use of medical marijuana is already legal in Oregon, but its sale is not.

Three more initiatives are in the signature verification stage, and results for all will be announced no later than August 1.

Arizona: Just one initiative on the ballot

The only initiative that submitted enough signatures to qualify for the November 2010 ballot in Arizona is Proposition 203, which would legalize marijuana for medical use.  11 other petitions that were circulated did not submit sufficient signatures by the July 1 deadline.

Four referendum petitions seeking to undo the state's new immigration law are still circulating and have until July 28 to submit signatures.

As it stands now, Arizona voters will see nine questions on the November ballot.