Prop*50

Election Results: Drugs, Tobacco and Alcohol

It has not been a good night for proponents of legalizing marijuana.  The one possible bright spot is Arizona, where a measure to legalize marijuana for medical purposes is teetering in the balance:  as of 12:25am MDT and with 92% of the ballots counted, it's got 49.7% of the vote.  The trend has been inching toward passage all night, but it has not yet topped the 50% mark:

Time	9:15pm MDT	10:02pm MDT	10:49pm MDT	12:25am MDT
% ballots counted	10%	44%	69%	92%
“Yes” vote	46.01%	49.08%	49.46%	49.70%

A medical marijuana proposal has failed to pass in South Dakota.  South Dakota has now rejected medical marijuana twice -- the first time was back in 2006, when a measure very similar to this year's proposal received 47.7% of the vote.  So far, South Dakota is the only state where voters have rejected medical marijuana.  Of course, Arizona may well become the second state tonight if that "yes" vote cannot surpass the 50% mark.

California's Proposition 19, which would have legalized the use of marijuana for anyone age 21 or older and allowed state and local governments to tax the sale of marijuana, is currently pulling just 43.6% of the vote.  Don't look for this issue to wither away though -- proponents in Colorado and Nevada are already talking about circulating petitions for the 2012 ballot.  If young people and Democrats voted in strong numbers for this measure, it will likely appear on more ballots in 2012 in an effort to sway voter turnout in Democrats' favor.

Alcohol - Voters in Massachusetts have rejected a sales tax on alcohol.  Passed by the Legislature in 2009, all of the revenue from this tax went into a fund for drug and alcohol treatment programs.  In Washington, voters appear to be rejecting both measures that proposed privatizing the sale of alcohol.  Initiative 1105 is clearly failing (that's the version that favored wholesalers).  Initiative 1100 (favoring retailers) is somewhat closer at 48.1% "yes" votes.  All but one county in Washington voted by mail yesterday, and ballots merely had to be postmarked by election day, rather than in the hands of election officials.  That means results will continue to trickle in over the next few days in Washington.  I-1100 is one that has the potential to tip in the other direction.

Tobacco - Voters have approved an expansion of South Dakota's smoking ban.

Read more about drug, alcohol and tobacco measures on NCSL's StateVote 2010 page.

 

More pot legalization votes in 2012?

As California voters make up their minds on Proposition 19, which would legalize the use of marijuana by any adult and allow state and local government to tax marijuana sales, speculation is beginning to swirl over whether this issue will retain its energy enough to crop up on ballots in other states in 2012.

The legalization of marijuana tends to be viewed more favorably by Democrats and by younger voters, who in the recent past have leaned more toward Democratic candidates than Republicans (68 percent of voters aged 18-29 voted for Obama in 2008, for example). 

A late October poll conducted by SurveyUSA in Colorado found that marijuana legalization was favored by 46 percent of Coloradans and opposed by 43 percent.  Given those numbers, don't be surprised if a Proposition 19-like initiative appears on the Colorado ballot in 2012.  The goal would be -- besides legalizing marijuana, of course -- tilting voter turnout toward Democrats on the ballot.

This is a strategy that gained traction in 2004 with same-sex marriage appearing on the ballot in 13 states.  The presence of that question on the Ohio ballot that year is widely credited with influencing voter turnout in favor of Republicans and tipping the scales in the presidential race to George Bush.

Will legalizing pot be the same-sex marriage of the 2012 elections?  Clues will start to trickle in by late 2011, as initiative filing begins around the country.

Update!  A new Gallup poll released today shows that it's not just Coloradans who are taking more positive views toward legalizing pot:  support nationwide is up 10 points since 2006, with 46 percent of Americans now saying they support legalization and half saying they oppose it.  The Gallup poll supports the idea that Democrats and young people are more likely to support legalization, as are voters in the western U.S. (where most of the initiative states happen to be too).   Support is lowest in the South and among Republican, conservative voters and those age 65 and older.

This gives us all the more reason to believe that advocates will seize on this issue and hope to push their cause onto statewide ballots around the country in 2012, and that left-leaning groups will aid in that push in hopes that support for marijuana on statewide ballots might spill over and benefit their candidates.

Oregon: 2 initiatives qualify for the ballot

The Oregon secretary of state announced today that two initiatives have qualified for the ballot:

• Petition 13 would impose mandatory minimum sentences for certain felony sex crimes and DUI convictions.  It's sponsor is former legislator Kevin Mannix, who has sponsored a number of anti-crime initiatives in Oregon.  Most recently, he sponsored Measures 60 and 61 in 2008, both of which failed to pass.
• Petition 28 would allow the creation of dispensaries to sell medical marijuana.  The use of medical marijuana is already legal in Oregon, but its sale is not.

Three more initiatives are in the signature verification stage, and results for all will be announced no later than August 1.

Arizona: Just one initiative on the ballot

The only initiative that submitted enough signatures to qualify for the November 2010 ballot in Arizona is Proposition 203, which would legalize marijuana for medical use.  11 other petitions that were circulated did not submit sufficient signatures by the July 1 deadline.

Four referendum petitions seeking to undo the state's new immigration law are still circulating and have until July 28 to submit signatures.

As it stands now, Arizona voters will see nine questions on the November ballot.