Prop*50

New polls on key measures

By Jennie Drage Bowser

Election day is right around the corner, with the first polling places opening in just over 24 hours. Let's take one last look at the polling data before the election results start trickling in.

Marriage

Thirty-two states have voted on same-sex marriage over the past decade and a half, and all 32 have voted against it. Two weeks ago, all signs were pointing toward a big change in this pattern this year. While some margins have tightened, it still looks likely that voters in at least one state will approve same-sex marriage on Tuesday. Passage appears near-certain in Washington, with smaller majorities favoring legalizing in Maine and Maryland. The Minnesota question remains in a statistical tie.

State	October Poll	September Poll
Maine	52% favor legalizing 45% oppose legalizing 3% undecided November 2 poll	57% favor legalizing 36% oppose legalizing 7% undecided September 30 poll
Maryland	55% favor legalizing 39% oppose legalizing 6% undecided October 29 poll	51% favor legalizing 43% oppose legalizing 6% undecided September 26 poll
Minnesota	47% oppose banning SS marriage 48% favor banning SS marriage 5% undecided October 28 poll	47% oppose banning SS marriage 49% favor banning SS marriage 4% undecided September 24 poll
Washington	58% favor legalizing 37% oppose legalizing 5% undecided November 1 poll	52% favor legalizing 40% oppose legalizing 8% undecided Mid-September poll

Drug Policy

Three states will vote on the sale, possession, and use of limited amounts of marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. Among the three, Washington voters are the most likely to approve legalization.

• Colorado:  50% yes / 44% no, according to a November 4 poll by the  Denver Post
• Oregon: 49% yes / 42% no, according to an October 29 poll by The Oregonian
• Washington: 55.4% yes / 37.6% no, according to a November 1 poll by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer
  

A watershed year for same-sex marriage?

By Jennie Drage Bowser

It looks likely that voters may say "yes" to same-sex marriage for almost the first time in U.S. history. I say "almost" because Arizona voters rejected a same-sex marriage ban back in 2006. That vote was widely regarded as an anomaly due to that particular campaign's attention on how the ban might affect elderly opposite-sex couples who chose not to marry. Arizona voters went on to approve a same-sex marriage ban in 2008.

This year's crop of same-sex marriage measures is different from the 33 measures that have appeared on the ballot since 1998 in two key ways:  the kinds of questions posed to voters are different, and the outcome may be dramatically different.

A different kind of question

Nearly all of the previous statewide popular votes on same-sex marriage have sought to ban the practice. They have generally been posed as amendments to state constitutions that would insert a definintion of marriage as "between one man and one woman," effectively prohibiting same-sex marriage. This year, voters in Maine will be asked to legalize same-sex marriage. That question has never been posed to a state's voters before.

The questions on the ballot in Maryland and Washington this November are popular referenda -- the are attempts by same-sex marriage opponents to veto bills recently passed by legislatures in those states that legalized the practice. This type of question has been on the ballot just once before -- in 2009, voters in Maine vetoed a new law legalizing same-sex marriage in that state. When the vote goes that way and voters veto a new bill, it never takes effect.

A different outcome

All signs point to a big change in voter attitudes toward same-sex marriage this year.

• In Maine, a late September poll showed voters favoring the legalization of same-sex marriage by a margin of 57 - 36. Seven percent remain undecided.
• In Maryland, a late September poll again shows voters in support of same-sex marriage, this time by 51 - 43 with six percent undecided. In this case, those undecided voters are great enough in number to potentially tip the election result to the "no" side.
• The attitudes of Minnesota are much less clear: a September 23 poll there found the chances of their proposal to ban same-sex marriage in a statistical tie at 49 percent in favor of the ban and 47 percent opposed. Past polls have revealed a similarly divided electorate.
• An early September poll in Washington indicates that support is at 52 - 40, with eight percent still undecided. Some voters there remain confused about exactly what a "yes" vote or a "no" vote means, a common problem with popular referenda. For the record, in the case of Referendum 74 in Washington (and also Queston 6 in Maryland), a "yes" vote is FOR same-sex marriage, and a "no" vote is AGAINST same-sex marriage.

If the predictions in any of these polls pan out on November 6, history will be made. Note that NCSL data on voter behavior supports the idea that Americans' attitudes toward same-sex marriage are changing, with a steady decline in support for same-sex marriage bans evident in election results nationwide since 2005.

Opponents of same-sex marriage, however, like to point out that early polls on California's Proposition 8 in 2008 showed similar results, yet that measure went on to fail on Election Day. A Wikipedia collection of pre-election polls confirms this - as early as October 31, 50 percent of voters opposed the same-sex marriage ban. The 2008 polling numbers in California moved around a lot more than the numbers in Maine, Maryland and Washington have this year though.

The bottom line:  you'll have to stay tuned for the final result, but signs point to voters in two more more states voting to legalize same-sex marriage this year.

What does the NC marriage vote mean for the future of same-sex marriage?

Last week, 61.1 percent of those voting in North Carolina's primary election agreed to add a provision to the state constitution stating that a marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in the state. North Carolina is the 30th state to add a definition of marriage to its state constitution, and Minnesota voters will weigh in on a similar question in November. Also in November, Maine voters will consider a citizen initiative that would legalize same-sex marriage in the state. The issue of marriage could also appear on ballots in Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio and Washington; deadlines are still in the future for those states and we won't know the status of petitions for certain until later this summer. [NCSL tracks statewide votes on the issues of marriage and civil unions here.]

To date, the only state that has rejected a same-sex marriage ban is Arizona. In 2006, voters rejected an initiated constitutional amendment that would have defined marriage as between one man and one woman. However, they went on to approve a similar question placed on the 2008 ballot. To date, no state's voters have approved the legalization of same-sex marriage; Maine voters will be the first to consider such a question this November.

Polling conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life shows that American attitudes toward same-sex marriage have changed over the past decade: in a 2001 poll, just 35 percent of Americans favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, while 57 percent opposed the idea. In Pew's most recent poll, conducted in April 2012, the numbers were flipped (although the margin is narrower): 47 percent favor legalizing same-sex marriage, while 43 percent oppose it.

NCSL data on voting patterns surrounding same-sex marriage reflect a similar trend:  the strength of the "yes" vote for banning same-sex marriage peaked in 2005, with a multi-state average of 73.1 percent of voters saying "yes" to a same-sex marriage ban. The "yes" vote has consistently lost strength since 2005, falling to 63.9 percent in 2006, 56.8 percent in 2008, and 52.9 percent in 2009.

North Carolina's 61.1 percent "yes" vote last week might appear to represent a reversal in this trend, but in fact it does not. It is important to note that support for banning same-sex marriage has been consistently stronger in the South than in the rest of the country, and in actuality, 61.1 percent is the lowest favorable vote for a same-sex marriage ban to ever occur in a southern state. The next-lowest was also the last vote on same-sex marriage held in a southern state:  in 2008, 61.9 percent of Florida voters favored banning same-sex marriage.

Year	Avg. “Yes” Vote for All States	"Yes" Vote in Southern States	"Yes" Vote in Non-Southern States
1998	68.1%	n/a	68.1%
2000	65.8%	n/a	65.8%
2002	66.9%	n/a	66.9%
2004	70.6%	74.1%	64.8%
2005	73.1%	76.3%	69.9%
2006	63.9%	74.4%	55.6%
2008	56.8%	61.9%	54.3%
2009	52.9%	n/a	52.9%
2012	61.1%*	61.1%*	n/a*

*NC only; MN is TBD

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures Ballot Measures Database

A poll conducted in Minnesota in late November 2011 indicates that the state could follow the trend of a declining "yes" vote for banning same-sex marriage:  48 percent supported such a ban, while 43 percent opposed it. An even more recent poll by SurveyUSA, conducted after President Obama announced his support for legalizing same-sex marriage, found that 52 percent of Minnesotans agreed with the President, while 42 percent opposed same-sex marriage. It's awfully early in the electoral process to place too much importance on either of these polls, but it's worth noting than early data indicate that Minnesota may continue the trend of declining voter support for banning same-sex marriage.

The survey data coming out of Maine falls in line with the pattern too. Rather than banning same-sex marriage, the question on Maine's November ballot flips the issue on its head by asking voters to approve a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry.  A late April poll conducted by the Maine People's Resource Center found that 52.8 percent of Maine voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage, while 39.9 percent oppose it (see slide #13 for the same-sex marriage data). If this polling data plays out on Election Day, Maine voters will throw the trend out the window entirely and become the first state where voters cast a favorable vote for legalizing same-sex marriage.

The bottom line:  Obviously we'll have to wait until Election Day to see how all of this really pans out, but it NCSL data on voter behavior and recent polling data from a number of sources agree:  voter attitudes toward same-sex marriage appear to be changing.