Prop*50

What does the NC marriage vote mean for the future of same-sex marriage?

Last week, 61.1 percent of those voting in North Carolina's primary election agreed to add a provision to the state constitution stating that a marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in the state. North Carolina is the 30th state to add a definition of marriage to its state constitution, and Minnesota voters will weigh in on a similar question in November. Also in November, Maine voters will consider a citizen initiative that would legalize same-sex marriage in the state. The issue of marriage could also appear on ballots in Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio and Washington; deadlines are still in the future for those states and we won't know the status of petitions for certain until later this summer. [NCSL tracks statewide votes on the issues of marriage and civil unions here.]

To date, the only state that has rejected a same-sex marriage ban is Arizona. In 2006, voters rejected an initiated constitutional amendment that would have defined marriage as between one man and one woman. However, they went on to approve a similar question placed on the 2008 ballot. To date, no state's voters have approved the legalization of same-sex marriage; Maine voters will be the first to consider such a question this November.

Polling conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life shows that American attitudes toward same-sex marriage have changed over the past decade: in a 2001 poll, just 35 percent of Americans favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, while 57 percent opposed the idea. In Pew's most recent poll, conducted in April 2012, the numbers were flipped (although the margin is narrower): 47 percent favor legalizing same-sex marriage, while 43 percent oppose it.

NCSL data on voting patterns surrounding same-sex marriage reflect a similar trend:  the strength of the "yes" vote for banning same-sex marriage peaked in 2005, with a multi-state average of 73.1 percent of voters saying "yes" to a same-sex marriage ban. The "yes" vote has consistently lost strength since 2005, falling to 63.9 percent in 2006, 56.8 percent in 2008, and 52.9 percent in 2009.

North Carolina's 61.1 percent "yes" vote last week might appear to represent a reversal in this trend, but in fact it does not. It is important to note that support for banning same-sex marriage has been consistently stronger in the South than in the rest of the country, and in actuality, 61.1 percent is the lowest favorable vote for a same-sex marriage ban to ever occur in a southern state. The next-lowest was also the last vote on same-sex marriage held in a southern state:  in 2008, 61.9 percent of Florida voters favored banning same-sex marriage.

Year	Avg. “Yes” Vote for All States	"Yes" Vote in Southern States	"Yes" Vote in Non-Southern States
1998	68.1%	n/a	68.1%
2000	65.8%	n/a	65.8%
2002	66.9%	n/a	66.9%
2004	70.6%	74.1%	64.8%
2005	73.1%	76.3%	69.9%
2006	63.9%	74.4%	55.6%
2008	56.8%	61.9%	54.3%
2009	52.9%	n/a	52.9%
2012	61.1%*	61.1%*	n/a*

*NC only; MN is TBD

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures Ballot Measures Database

A poll conducted in Minnesota in late November 2011 indicates that the state could follow the trend of a declining "yes" vote for banning same-sex marriage:  48 percent supported such a ban, while 43 percent opposed it. An even more recent poll by SurveyUSA, conducted after President Obama announced his support for legalizing same-sex marriage, found that 52 percent of Minnesotans agreed with the President, while 42 percent opposed same-sex marriage. It's awfully early in the electoral process to place too much importance on either of these polls, but it's worth noting than early data indicate that Minnesota may continue the trend of declining voter support for banning same-sex marriage.

The survey data coming out of Maine falls in line with the pattern too. Rather than banning same-sex marriage, the question on Maine's November ballot flips the issue on its head by asking voters to approve a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry.  A late April poll conducted by the Maine People's Resource Center found that 52.8 percent of Maine voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage, while 39.9 percent oppose it (see slide #13 for the same-sex marriage data). If this polling data plays out on Election Day, Maine voters will throw the trend out the window entirely and become the first state where voters cast a favorable vote for legalizing same-sex marriage.

The bottom line:  Obviously we'll have to wait until Election Day to see how all of this really pans out, but it NCSL data on voter behavior and recent polling data from a number of sources agree:  voter attitudes toward same-sex marriage appear to be changing.

Trial on CO's pay-per-signature ban underway

A long-awaited trial is finally underway in Colorado. The law at issue was passed by the state legislature back in 2009. Among other provisions, HB 1326 prohibited paying petition circulators more than 20 percent of their total compensation on a per-signature basis. That's the most common way to pay petition circulators, although it is prohibited in six states besides Colorado. States have sought to restrict paying circulators based on how many signatures they gather because of the worry that such a system may encourage fraudulent behavior on the part of circulators. If more signatures equals more salary, then why not fudge a few? Opponents argue that the logic behind this is flawed, and that such bans make the cost of gathering signatures prohibitively high.

Colorado's pay-per-signature ban was enjoined by a federal judge back in June 2010, and the trial is just now getting underway. Testimony is scheduled to last for eight days over this week and next week, and an opinion would most likely come later in the summer or early fall.

The ban on paying on a per-signature basis is temporarily on hold, pending the outcome of the trial.

Read more in the Denver Post.

Government Reform by Jedi Council?

A California group called the Think Long Committee has issued a new report recommending what almost sounds like a new, fourth branch of government for California:  the Citizens Council for Government Accountability. The Council, made up of 13 members appointed to six-year terms by the governor and the leaders of both parties in the legislature, would have the power to place proposed laws and constitutional amendments directly on the ballot. No legislative vetting or petitioning required.

It's not an idea that's entirely unheard of -- Florida has two entities that are similar. The Tax and Budget Reform Commission and Constitution Revision Commission each meet every 20 years and can place questions directly on the ballot for voter approval. Both have a narrower scope than what's being proposed by Think Long - the TBRC is restricted to (not surprisingly) matters dealing with taxation and budgets. The CRC has somewhat broader discretion and can recommend a change to any part of the state constitution, but even the CRC could not propose changes to state law.

The idea may sound far-fetched (journalist Joe Mathews called it "a Jedi Council for California), but the $20 million backing Think Long has thanks to billionaire Nicolas Berggruen certainly adds at least a touch of credibility to the idea.

Read more about it on KQED News's Capital Notes Blog.

Michigan recall successful

The ballots are finally counted in the second recall in yesterday's election, and Michigan Representative Paul Scott has been recalled. The results are very close, with the "yes" vote just 197 votes ahead of the "no" vote. While Rep. Scott has said he will not demand a recount, the state Republican party has not ruled it out.

Under Michigan's recall rules, Rep. Scott will stay in office until a successor is chosen in a February 2012 special election.

Read local media coverage on mlive.com.

Washington results are in

While more than 300,000 ballots still have to be counted, the results of most ballot questions in Washington appear to be settled. Initiative 1183, which sought to privatize liquor sales, is passing at a comfortable 59.7%. A similar measure failed in 2010, but the $22.5 million spent by retailer Costco in favor of Initiative 1183 this year may have helped turn results around. Also passing is Initiative 1163, requiring training and background checks for home health care workers.

Less clear are the results on Initiative 1125, which would require that all revenue from motor fuel taxes and vehicle tolls be used for transporation. With about 76% of the ballots counted, the "yes" vote currently stands at 49%.

Results are rolling in, with one big surprise

The first surprise of the night comes with the apparent failure of Mississippi's "personhood" initiative. Widely expected to pass, it is presently at a 43% "yes" vote with 63% of precincts reporting. On the other hand, with the passage of Initiative 27, Mississippi looks to be the thirty-first state to implement a voter ID requirement.

The two popular referenda on the ballot have passed tonight. In Ohio, voters have overturned SB 5, which limited public employee union bargaining rights. In Maine, voters have vetoed LD 1376, which did away with the state's Election Day registration law.

Other instances of voter backlash include two recall efforts against state legislators. While official election results won't come in until all early ballots have been counted, it appears that Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce has lost his seat in a recall election. The second recall on today's ballot, against Michigan Representative Paul Scott, is currently too close to call at 49.2% yes and 50.8% no, with 29 of 35 precincts counted.

Statewide bond measures have fared well, which is not unusual, even in a bad economy. All three bonds on statewide ballots today have passed -- $575 million for highways in Arkansas, and two measures in Texas: $6 billion for water development and a continuation of bonding authority for higher education loans.

It's still too early to report on Washington's election results, so please check back later tonight.

26 measures on the ballot today

Voters in six states face a total of 26 ballot measures in today's elections. Those we're watching closely here at NCSL include:

• personhood in Mississippi
• voter ID, also in Mississippi
• two popular referenda, one over a labor law change in Ohio, and one dealing with election day voter registration in Maine
• private liquor sales in Washington

Mississippi

Voters in Mississippi weigh in on three citizen initiatives today, a number that more than doubles the total number of initiatives to reach the ballot in state history. Previously Mississippi voters had considered only two initiatives, both proposing legislative term limits, and both rejected. Mississippi is the newest initiative state in the country, having adopted the process in 1992.

Two of the three initiatives on today's ballot are particularly interesting (the third, an eminent domain measure, is less controversial). Initiative 26 would define the word "person" to include "every human being from the moment of fertilization, cloning, or the functional equivalent thereof." It's similar to initiatives rejected by Colorado voters in 2008 and 2010. Initiative 26 is controversial because its full implications should it pass are unclear. There is speculation that certain forms of birth control would be illegal under Initiative 26, as would certain procedures involved in in vitro fertilization. Personhood initiatives are already circulating in hopes of landing on the 2012 ballot in Florida, Montana, Ohio and Oregon; victory in Mississippi today could help sustain momentum and aid fundraising efforts in these other states. CNN offers a thorough analysis of the debate in Mississippi.

Passage of Initiative 27 would make Mississippi the 31st state to require voters to present identification at the polls, and the eighth state to adopt a so-called "strict photo ID" requirement. Voter ID has been the hottest election issue around the country this year, with seven states enacting new voter ID laws this year and another 27 considering it. Learn more about voter ID here.

Popular Referenda

A popular referendum, also called a people's veto, is a petition-driven vote on a new law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. Once a challenge is filed against a new law, implementation of the law goes on hold while its opponents gather petition signatures. If they gather enough valid signatures, implementation remains on hold pending a popular vote on the law. If voters uphold the law, it takes effect after the election. If they reject it, it never takes effect. Twenty-three states have a popular referendum process.

The popular referendum is used much less often than the citizen initiative -- since 2000, odd-year elections have featured an average of just 1.2 popular referenda, and even-year elections have had an average of 4.5 (note that six popular referenda are already qualified for the 2012 ballot, with one more currently in signature verification). The 2011 election features two popular referenda.

Maine

Voters in Maine will weigh in on Chapter 399 of the Public Laws of 2011. This law repealed election day registration, also called same-day registration or SDR. Opponents of this move didn't want to see SDR, the law in Maine since 1973, go away, so they launched a petition drive to nullify the new law. If a majority of Maine voters vote "yes" today on Question 1, they will veto the new law and SDR will remain in effect in Maine. If a majority vote "no," they'll be voting keep the new law that does away with SDR.

Ohio

Ohio voters weigh in on SB 5 today. This is a new law regarding public employee labor union contracts, and labor supporters gathered enough signatures to trigger a popular vote on the new law. The election results on this one work in the opposite manner from Maine's though -- if a majority of Ohio voters vote "yes" on Issue 2 today, that has the effect of upholding SB 5's new public employee union policies. A majority "no" vote would veto SB 5, and Ohio's labor laws would remain unchanged from how they were before the Legislature passed SB 5 earlier this year.

Private Liquor Sales in Washington

This one might sound familiar to you. That's because Washington voters considered two very similar initiatives on the 2010 ballot. They rejected both. That's not uncommon when there are similar measures competing for votes on the same ballot -- voters are often unsure of the difference between the two measures, and tend to vote "no" because they understand the status quo better than the two proposals. This year's Initiative 1183 would require the state to stop selling spirits and allow private sales by June 1, 2012. Retailer Costco has poured more than $22 million into the yes on 1183 campaign, dwarfing the nearly $5 million they contributed to the yes on I-1100 campaign in 2010 and setting a new state record for initiative fundraising.

Stay Tuned for Election Results

Although NCSL's election coverage is lower-key in odd-year elections, we'll be up late tonight tracking both ballot measure and candidate election results and posting here as well as on our StateVote 2011 web page and on The Thicket. You can read about other measures on today's ballots in our 2011 ballot measures preview.

Two more recalls

Along with 26 statewide measures on the ballot, tomorrow's elections bring two more recalls of state legislators.

Arizona:  Senate President Russell Pearce faces another Republican, Jerry Lewis, in a recall election tomorrow. This recall was triggered by opposition to Arizona's immigration enforcement law, which Sen. Pearce sponsored. This is the first-ever recall election for a legislator in Arizona. A recent poll gave Lewis a 46-43 lead over Sen. Pearce, which is within the poll's margin of error. The candidate who wins tomorrow's recall election assumes the Senate seat. Read the local media coverage here.

Michigan: The recall election for Representative Paul Scott in Michigan is attracting less national attention. More than two dozen recall efforts against Michigan legislators have been launched since last summer; the Rep. Scott recall is the only one to reach the ballot so far. The politics behind this recall effort are not as clear-cut, but appear to stem from K-12 education funding cuts and a teacher tenure reform measure (Rep. Scott chairs the House education comittee). Michigan's recall process works differently -- if the recall vote tomorrow is successful, then the parties will nominate candidates for a February special election to fill the seat, and Rep. Scott will remain in office until the special election results are certified.  An early November poll showed that 42 percent of voters favored recalling Rep. Scott, 50 percent wanted him to stay in office, and 8 percent remained undecided. Read local media coverage here.

Learn more about the recall device.

Colorado's Prop. 103 fails

With 98% of precincts reporting, just over a third of Colorado voters -- 36.4% -- voted in favor of Proposition 103. Sponsored by state senator Rollie Heath, Prop. 103 would have temporarily raised income and state sales taxes for a period of five years to make up for cuts to education.

Prop. 103 was the only proposed statewide tax increase on the ballot in 2011. Last year, voters in Arizona and Oregon approved tax increases.

In a May 18, 2010, special election, Arizona voters approved Proposition 100, which instituted a temporary 1% transaction and use tax for three years. Two-thirds of the revenue raised goes to public education and one-third to health and human services and public safety.

In a January 2010 special election, Oregon voters approved two tax increases that were enacted by the legislature and then subjected to voter approval through the popular referendum process. Measure 66 raised income tax rates for individuals earning $125,000 or more and households earning $250,000 or more. Measure 67 raised minimum taxes for businesses and corporations.

The last election in which voters approved a tax increase proposed by a citizen initiative was in 2006. That year, Alaska voters approved a new tax on cruise ships, and voters in Arizona and South Dakota approved increases in tobacco taxes.

Read more about Prop. 103 in the Denver Post.

Why did Colorado vote on Nov. 1?

In most states, the 2011 general election falls on November 8. But in Colorado, Election Day this year was November 1. That's due to a quirk in the wording of Colorado's TABOR amendment. TABOR is short for the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, which was passed by citizen initiative in 1992. Prior to the passage of TABOR, ballot measure votes in Colorado were restricted to even-year general elections. One of the key requirements of TABOR, however, was that all future tax increases would require voter approval, and TABOR changed the Colorado constitution to permit votes on revenue issues in odd years:

Colorado Constitution Article X, §20(3)(a)

Ballot issues shall be decided in a state general election, biennial local district election, or on the first Tuesday in November of odd-numbered years.

For even-year elections, state law specifies that the general election is held on "the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November." That falls on November 8 this year, when most states hold elections. Under the TABOR language, however, Colorado's odd-year election fell on November 1 this year, the first Tuesday in November.