Prop*50

New polls on key measures

By Jennie Drage Bowser

Election day is right around the corner, with the first polling places opening in just over 24 hours. Let's take one last look at the polling data before the election results start trickling in.

Marriage

Thirty-two states have voted on same-sex marriage over the past decade and a half, and all 32 have voted against it. Two weeks ago, all signs were pointing toward a big change in this pattern this year. While some margins have tightened, it still looks likely that voters in at least one state will approve same-sex marriage on Tuesday. Passage appears near-certain in Washington, with smaller majorities favoring legalizing in Maine and Maryland. The Minnesota question remains in a statistical tie.

State	October Poll	September Poll
Maine	52% favor legalizing 45% oppose legalizing 3% undecided November 2 poll	57% favor legalizing 36% oppose legalizing 7% undecided September 30 poll
Maryland	55% favor legalizing 39% oppose legalizing 6% undecided October 29 poll	51% favor legalizing 43% oppose legalizing 6% undecided September 26 poll
Minnesota	47% oppose banning SS marriage 48% favor banning SS marriage 5% undecided October 28 poll	47% oppose banning SS marriage 49% favor banning SS marriage 4% undecided September 24 poll
Washington	58% favor legalizing 37% oppose legalizing 5% undecided November 1 poll	52% favor legalizing 40% oppose legalizing 8% undecided Mid-September poll

Drug Policy

Three states will vote on the sale, possession, and use of limited amounts of marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. Among the three, Washington voters are the most likely to approve legalization.

• Colorado:  50% yes / 44% no, according to a November 4 poll by the  Denver Post
• Oregon: 49% yes / 42% no, according to an October 29 poll by The Oregonian
• Washington: 55.4% yes / 37.6% no, according to a November 1 poll by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer
  

A watershed year for same-sex marriage?

By Jennie Drage Bowser

It looks likely that voters may say "yes" to same-sex marriage for almost the first time in U.S. history. I say "almost" because Arizona voters rejected a same-sex marriage ban back in 2006. That vote was widely regarded as an anomaly due to that particular campaign's attention on how the ban might affect elderly opposite-sex couples who chose not to marry. Arizona voters went on to approve a same-sex marriage ban in 2008.

This year's crop of same-sex marriage measures is different from the 33 measures that have appeared on the ballot since 1998 in two key ways:  the kinds of questions posed to voters are different, and the outcome may be dramatically different.

A different kind of question

Nearly all of the previous statewide popular votes on same-sex marriage have sought to ban the practice. They have generally been posed as amendments to state constitutions that would insert a definintion of marriage as "between one man and one woman," effectively prohibiting same-sex marriage. This year, voters in Maine will be asked to legalize same-sex marriage. That question has never been posed to a state's voters before.

The questions on the ballot in Maryland and Washington this November are popular referenda -- the are attempts by same-sex marriage opponents to veto bills recently passed by legislatures in those states that legalized the practice. This type of question has been on the ballot just once before -- in 2009, voters in Maine vetoed a new law legalizing same-sex marriage in that state. When the vote goes that way and voters veto a new bill, it never takes effect.

A different outcome

All signs point to a big change in voter attitudes toward same-sex marriage this year.

• In Maine, a late September poll showed voters favoring the legalization of same-sex marriage by a margin of 57 - 36. Seven percent remain undecided.
• In Maryland, a late September poll again shows voters in support of same-sex marriage, this time by 51 - 43 with six percent undecided. In this case, those undecided voters are great enough in number to potentially tip the election result to the "no" side.
• The attitudes of Minnesota are much less clear: a September 23 poll there found the chances of their proposal to ban same-sex marriage in a statistical tie at 49 percent in favor of the ban and 47 percent opposed. Past polls have revealed a similarly divided electorate.
• An early September poll in Washington indicates that support is at 52 - 40, with eight percent still undecided. Some voters there remain confused about exactly what a "yes" vote or a "no" vote means, a common problem with popular referenda. For the record, in the case of Referendum 74 in Washington (and also Queston 6 in Maryland), a "yes" vote is FOR same-sex marriage, and a "no" vote is AGAINST same-sex marriage.

If the predictions in any of these polls pan out on November 6, history will be made. Note that NCSL data on voter behavior supports the idea that Americans' attitudes toward same-sex marriage are changing, with a steady decline in support for same-sex marriage bans evident in election results nationwide since 2005.

Opponents of same-sex marriage, however, like to point out that early polls on California's Proposition 8 in 2008 showed similar results, yet that measure went on to fail on Election Day. A Wikipedia collection of pre-election polls confirms this - as early as October 31, 50 percent of voters opposed the same-sex marriage ban. The 2008 polling numbers in California moved around a lot more than the numbers in Maine, Maryland and Washington have this year though.

The bottom line:  you'll have to stay tuned for the final result, but signs point to voters in two more more states voting to legalize same-sex marriage this year.

Legalizing pot: what the polls say

 By Jennie Drage Bowser

Initiative proposals to legalize the sale and use of marijuana for anyone aged 21 or older are on the ballot in Colorado, Oregon and Washington this November 6. California voters rejected a similar proposal in November 2010 - that measure got a 46.5% "yes" vote. Current polling data shows that the proposals in Colorado and Washington stand a decent chance of passage on Election Day.

SurveyUSA released a poll on October 15 showing support for Colorado's Amendment 64 at 48 percent, with 43 percent opposed and nine percent undecided. That poll has a margin of error of +/-4%. Support is down from 51 percent in a poll conducted a month ago. According to the Denver Post, the swing is largely attributed to a change in attitudes among women. In the September poll, Amendment 64 held a 49 - 39 lead among women. Yesterday's poll, however, shows a a nine-point drop in support among women -- they are now at 48 - 40 opposed.

Two September polls in Washington show that state's marijuana legalization measure with a comfortable lead. A SurveyUSA poll put support at 57 percent, while an Elway poll put support at 50 percent. The Elway poll also showed a larger group of undecided voters:  12 percent, compared to nine percent in the SurveyUSA poll. An earlier Elway poll conducted in July found support at 46 percent.

Oregon's legalization measure appears to be polling weaker than its counterparts in Colorado and Washington. In a mid-September SurveyUSA poll, it was supported by 37 percent and opposed by 41 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error.  The Oregonian points out that the chief proponent of the Oregon proposal has been controversial in that state, and his measure is also pulling in less campaign money than the measures in the other two states.

In California, support for Proposition 19 hovered around the 50 percent mark in mid-September 2010,  and declined into the mid-40s throughout October. Given that pattern and the eventual  "no" vote on that measure on Election Day, Washington's marijuana legalization probably stands the best chance among the three of passing this year.

Support for Colorado revenue-slashing measures remains low

A new poll released today by the Denver Post and 9News reveals that support for Amendments 60 and 61 and Proposition 101 -- already very weak a month ago -- has not improved.  While the percentage of those saying they'll vote "yes" has gone up since late September, a closer analysis reveals this is not in fact a sign of increasing support.  In the late September poll, the "undecided" vote for all three was more than 40 percent.  That's dropped to 20 - 24 percent, and the majority of those who've made up their minds since the earlier poll was taken have decided to vote no. 

While the "yes" vote is up by eight points for Amendments 60 & 61 and nine points for Proposition 101, the "no" vote is up by higher margins:  11 points for Amendment 60 and Proposition 101, and 14 points for Amendment 61.

	October 19 – 21			September 28-30
	Yes	No	Not Sure	Yes	No	Not Sure
Am. 60	18%	59%	23%	10%	48%	42%
Am. 61	18%	63%	20%	10%	49%	40%
Prop. 101	21%	55%	24%	12%	44%	44%

Amendment 60 cuts property taxes by half and requires the states to reimburse school districts for the lost K-12 revenue.  Amendment 61 prohibits state borrowing and restricts local government borrowing.  Proposition 101 cuts or eliminates most vehicle and telecommunications taxes and fees.

Collection of polling data

Visit NCSL's newly-launched StateVote 2010 website to read a summary of recent polls on ballot measures.  New polls today include nearly all of the initiatives on Colorado's ballot as well as a casino initiative in Maine.

Poll: Colorado's Amendments 60 & 61 and Prop. 101

A poll conducted in late August by Ciruli Associates reveals that a sizable portion of the Colorado electorate is undecided on the three revenue measures on the state's ballot.  Just one, Proposition 101, which would cut the income tax as well as telecommunications and automobile taxes and fees, was leading.  Ciruli attributes the sagging support to the well-financed and widespread opposition to the three measures among Colorado elected officials in both parties and the Colorado business community.

Read more about it in The Denver Post or on Floyd Ciruli's blog, The Buzz. 

Poll: WA voters support I-1053 anti-tax measure

A poll by Survey USA on behalf of Seattle television news outlet KING 5 finds that a majority of Washington voters support the passage of Initiative 1053.  The poll found that 55 percent are certain they will vote yes, 18 percent are certain they will vote no, and 26 percent remain undecided.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9%.

Proposed by anti-tax activist Tim Eyman, I-1053 would reinstate a two-thirds vote requirement for the Legislature to pass tax increases.  Originally put in place by an initiative in 2007, the legislature temporarily suspended the two-thirds requirement earlier this year and enacted a tax increase to help balance the state budget.  The current suspension of the supermajority vote will expire on July 1, 2011.  If I-1053 passes, the suspension will expire immediately, and the supermajority vote requirement will take effect on election day.

Read more about it and view the television news segment here.

I-1053 Supporters

I-1053 Opponents

The same poll asked voters about several other issues on the Washington ballot, but the results are less clear-cut.

• Initiative 1098 - new tax on incomes above $200,000 (single filers) or $400,000 (joint filers): 41 percent support, 33 percent oppose, 26 percent remain undecided.
• Initiative 1107 - repeal sales tax on candy, bottled water, and carbonated drinks: 42 percent support, 34 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.
• Referendum 52 - authorize bonds and continue a sales tax on bottled water to pay for projects to increase energy efficiency in public buildings: 34 percent support, 42 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.

View the crosstabs for all four questions here.

California Poll: Legalized Pot Not So Hot

According to a California Field Poll released on July 9, voters are not supportive of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana for adults.  44 percent of those surveyed support the measure, while 48 percent oppose it.  While California will be the first state to vote on legalizing the sale of marijuana, several states have voted on decriminalizing possession of marijuana.  In 2008, Massachusetts voted to replace criminal penalties for possession of up to one ounce with a civil penalty.  Similar measures have been rejected by voters in Colorado (2006), Nevada (2002 and 2006) and Oregon (1986).  In 2008, California voters rejected Proposition 5, which would have changed sentencing guidelines for drug crimes, with a preference for parole and rehabilitation over prison time.

The poll asked about three other initiatives on the California ballot:

• Prop. 25 - replace current 2/3 vote requirement for passing a budget in the legislature with a simple majority vote - 65 percent of voters favor this proposal, compared to just 20 percent who oppose it.
• Prop. 23 - suspend limits on greenhouse gas emissions - 48 percent oppose it; 36 percent support it.  Note however that only 39 percent of the voters surveyed said they knew much about the proposal, and among those voters, opinions are split (44 percent yes vs. 45 percent no).
• Prop. 18 - water bonds - 42 percent support it and 32 percent oppose it.  Once again, however, only a small percentage of those polled -- 24 percent -- admit they are familiar with the measure, and support among those voters is much stronger:  57 percent, compared to 33 percent who oppose it.