Prop*50

Support for Colorado revenue-slashing measures remains low

A new poll released today by the Denver Post and 9News reveals that support for Amendments 60 and 61 and Proposition 101 -- already very weak a month ago -- has not improved.  While the percentage of those saying they'll vote "yes" has gone up since late September, a closer analysis reveals this is not in fact a sign of increasing support.  In the late September poll, the "undecided" vote for all three was more than 40 percent.  That's dropped to 20 - 24 percent, and the majority of those who've made up their minds since the earlier poll was taken have decided to vote no. 

While the "yes" vote is up by eight points for Amendments 60 & 61 and nine points for Proposition 101, the "no" vote is up by higher margins:  11 points for Amendment 60 and Proposition 101, and 14 points for Amendment 61.

	October 19 – 21			September 28-30
	Yes	No	Not Sure	Yes	No	Not Sure
Am. 60	18%	59%	23%	10%	48%	42%
Am. 61	18%	63%	20%	10%	49%	40%
Prop. 101	21%	55%	24%	12%	44%	44%

Amendment 60 cuts property taxes by half and requires the states to reimburse school districts for the lost K-12 revenue.  Amendment 61 prohibits state borrowing and restricts local government borrowing.  Proposition 101 cuts or eliminates most vehicle and telecommunications taxes and fees.

Collection of polling data

Visit NCSL's newly-launched StateVote 2010 website to read a summary of recent polls on ballot measures.  New polls today include nearly all of the initiatives on Colorado's ballot as well as a casino initiative in Maine.

Poll: Colorado's Amendments 60 & 61 and Prop. 101

A poll conducted in late August by Ciruli Associates reveals that a sizable portion of the Colorado electorate is undecided on the three revenue measures on the state's ballot.  Just one, Proposition 101, which would cut the income tax as well as telecommunications and automobile taxes and fees, was leading.  Ciruli attributes the sagging support to the well-financed and widespread opposition to the three measures among Colorado elected officials in both parties and the Colorado business community.

Read more about it in The Denver Post or on Floyd Ciruli's blog, The Buzz. 

Poll: WA voters support I-1053 anti-tax measure

A poll by Survey USA on behalf of Seattle television news outlet KING 5 finds that a majority of Washington voters support the passage of Initiative 1053.  The poll found that 55 percent are certain they will vote yes, 18 percent are certain they will vote no, and 26 percent remain undecided.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9%.

Proposed by anti-tax activist Tim Eyman, I-1053 would reinstate a two-thirds vote requirement for the Legislature to pass tax increases.  Originally put in place by an initiative in 2007, the legislature temporarily suspended the two-thirds requirement earlier this year and enacted a tax increase to help balance the state budget.  The current suspension of the supermajority vote will expire on July 1, 2011.  If I-1053 passes, the suspension will expire immediately, and the supermajority vote requirement will take effect on election day.

Read more about it and view the television news segment here.

I-1053 Supporters

I-1053 Opponents

The same poll asked voters about several other issues on the Washington ballot, but the results are less clear-cut.

• Initiative 1098 - new tax on incomes above $200,000 (single filers) or $400,000 (joint filers): 41 percent support, 33 percent oppose, 26 percent remain undecided.
• Initiative 1107 - repeal sales tax on candy, bottled water, and carbonated drinks: 42 percent support, 34 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.
• Referendum 52 - authorize bonds and continue a sales tax on bottled water to pay for projects to increase energy efficiency in public buildings: 34 percent support, 42 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.

View the crosstabs for all four questions here.

California Poll: Legalized Pot Not So Hot

According to a California Field Poll released on July 9, voters are not supportive of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana for adults.  44 percent of those surveyed support the measure, while 48 percent oppose it.  While California will be the first state to vote on legalizing the sale of marijuana, several states have voted on decriminalizing possession of marijuana.  In 2008, Massachusetts voted to replace criminal penalties for possession of up to one ounce with a civil penalty.  Similar measures have been rejected by voters in Colorado (2006), Nevada (2002 and 2006) and Oregon (1986).  In 2008, California voters rejected Proposition 5, which would have changed sentencing guidelines for drug crimes, with a preference for parole and rehabilitation over prison time.

The poll asked about three other initiatives on the California ballot:

• Prop. 25 - replace current 2/3 vote requirement for passing a budget in the legislature with a simple majority vote - 65 percent of voters favor this proposal, compared to just 20 percent who oppose it.
• Prop. 23 - suspend limits on greenhouse gas emissions - 48 percent oppose it; 36 percent support it.  Note however that only 39 percent of the voters surveyed said they knew much about the proposal, and among those voters, opinions are split (44 percent yes vs. 45 percent no).
• Prop. 18 - water bonds - 42 percent support it and 32 percent oppose it.  Once again, however, only a small percentage of those polled -- 24 percent -- admit they are familiar with the measure, and support among those voters is much stronger:  57 percent, compared to 33 percent who oppose it.