Prop*50

Washington results are in

While more than 300,000 ballots still have to be counted, the results of most ballot questions in Washington appear to be settled. Initiative 1183, which sought to privatize liquor sales, is passing at a comfortable 59.7%. A similar measure failed in 2010, but the $22.5 million spent by retailer Costco in favor of Initiative 1183 this year may have helped turn results around. Also passing is Initiative 1163, requiring training and background checks for home health care workers.

Less clear are the results on Initiative 1125, which would require that all revenue from motor fuel taxes and vehicle tolls be used for transporation. With about 76% of the ballots counted, the "yes" vote currently stands at 49%.

26 measures on the ballot today

Voters in six states face a total of 26 ballot measures in today's elections. Those we're watching closely here at NCSL include:

• personhood in Mississippi
• voter ID, also in Mississippi
• two popular referenda, one over a labor law change in Ohio, and one dealing with election day voter registration in Maine
• private liquor sales in Washington

Mississippi

Voters in Mississippi weigh in on three citizen initiatives today, a number that more than doubles the total number of initiatives to reach the ballot in state history. Previously Mississippi voters had considered only two initiatives, both proposing legislative term limits, and both rejected. Mississippi is the newest initiative state in the country, having adopted the process in 1992.

Two of the three initiatives on today's ballot are particularly interesting (the third, an eminent domain measure, is less controversial). Initiative 26 would define the word "person" to include "every human being from the moment of fertilization, cloning, or the functional equivalent thereof." It's similar to initiatives rejected by Colorado voters in 2008 and 2010. Initiative 26 is controversial because its full implications should it pass are unclear. There is speculation that certain forms of birth control would be illegal under Initiative 26, as would certain procedures involved in in vitro fertilization. Personhood initiatives are already circulating in hopes of landing on the 2012 ballot in Florida, Montana, Ohio and Oregon; victory in Mississippi today could help sustain momentum and aid fundraising efforts in these other states. CNN offers a thorough analysis of the debate in Mississippi.

Passage of Initiative 27 would make Mississippi the 31st state to require voters to present identification at the polls, and the eighth state to adopt a so-called "strict photo ID" requirement. Voter ID has been the hottest election issue around the country this year, with seven states enacting new voter ID laws this year and another 27 considering it. Learn more about voter ID here.

Popular Referenda

A popular referendum, also called a people's veto, is a petition-driven vote on a new law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. Once a challenge is filed against a new law, implementation of the law goes on hold while its opponents gather petition signatures. If they gather enough valid signatures, implementation remains on hold pending a popular vote on the law. If voters uphold the law, it takes effect after the election. If they reject it, it never takes effect. Twenty-three states have a popular referendum process.

The popular referendum is used much less often than the citizen initiative -- since 2000, odd-year elections have featured an average of just 1.2 popular referenda, and even-year elections have had an average of 4.5 (note that six popular referenda are already qualified for the 2012 ballot, with one more currently in signature verification). The 2011 election features two popular referenda.

Maine

Voters in Maine will weigh in on Chapter 399 of the Public Laws of 2011. This law repealed election day registration, also called same-day registration or SDR. Opponents of this move didn't want to see SDR, the law in Maine since 1973, go away, so they launched a petition drive to nullify the new law. If a majority of Maine voters vote "yes" today on Question 1, they will veto the new law and SDR will remain in effect in Maine. If a majority vote "no," they'll be voting keep the new law that does away with SDR.

Ohio

Ohio voters weigh in on SB 5 today. This is a new law regarding public employee labor union contracts, and labor supporters gathered enough signatures to trigger a popular vote on the new law. The election results on this one work in the opposite manner from Maine's though -- if a majority of Ohio voters vote "yes" on Issue 2 today, that has the effect of upholding SB 5's new public employee union policies. A majority "no" vote would veto SB 5, and Ohio's labor laws would remain unchanged from how they were before the Legislature passed SB 5 earlier this year.

Private Liquor Sales in Washington

This one might sound familiar to you. That's because Washington voters considered two very similar initiatives on the 2010 ballot. They rejected both. That's not uncommon when there are similar measures competing for votes on the same ballot -- voters are often unsure of the difference between the two measures, and tend to vote "no" because they understand the status quo better than the two proposals. This year's Initiative 1183 would require the state to stop selling spirits and allow private sales by June 1, 2012. Retailer Costco has poured more than $22 million into the yes on 1183 campaign, dwarfing the nearly $5 million they contributed to the yes on I-1100 campaign in 2010 and setting a new state record for initiative fundraising.

Stay Tuned for Election Results

Although NCSL's election coverage is lower-key in odd-year elections, we'll be up late tonight tracking both ballot measure and candidate election results and posting here as well as on our StateVote 2011 web page and on The Thicket. You can read about other measures on today's ballots in our 2011 ballot measures preview.

Washington's campaign finance limits stand, for now

Two courts weighed in on Washington's campaign finance rules for initiative campaigns last week.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on October 12 upheld a lower court ruling that validated the state's disclosure rules for campaign spending.  A group called Human Life filed the suit, alleging that the state's requirements that the group register as a political action committee and report its fundraising and spending on issue ads opposing a 2008 assisted suicide initiative were unconstitutional.  A three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit disagreed, writing that, “Access to reliable information becomes even more important as more speakers, more speech and thus more spending enter the marketplace, which is precisely what has occurred in recent years...Like campaigns for elected office, ballot initiatives are the subject of intense debate and, accordingly, greater expenditures to ensure that messages reach voters.”

On the same day, the U.S. Supreme Court weighed in on a different campaign finance case from Washington.  Washington campaign finance law has a unique feature:  during the last 21 days before an election (that clock started ticking on Oct. 12 for the Nov. 2 election), no single source can donate more than $5,000 in the aggregate to any political committee.  This limit came under challenge by a group called Family PAC in 2009.  They were organized to oppose Referendum Measure 71 in 2009, which proposed to expand the rights of same-sex domestic partners.  A judge in 2009 refused to lift the ban in 2009 because the challenge came so late in the election that lifting the ban would be disruptive.  After the election, the judge struck down the $5,000 limit.  The state of Washington appealed to the 9th Circuit for a stay, and the court obliged.  Tuesday's SCOTUS ruling upholds the 9th Circuit's stay.  Look for a more protracted battle on this case after the election.

As always SCOTUSblog provides an excellent explanation as well as links to briefs.

Initiative 1098 circulator charged with forgery

A 52 year-old woman who circulated petitions for I-1098, a Washington initiative that would impose a tax on incomes above $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for joint filers, has been charged with forgery.  She was gathering signatures on behalf of the Service Employees International Union, which pays circulators a wage but does not pay on a per-signature basis.  Read more about the case from KOMO News.

Poll: WA voters support I-1053 anti-tax measure

A poll by Survey USA on behalf of Seattle television news outlet KING 5 finds that a majority of Washington voters support the passage of Initiative 1053.  The poll found that 55 percent are certain they will vote yes, 18 percent are certain they will vote no, and 26 percent remain undecided.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9%.

Proposed by anti-tax activist Tim Eyman, I-1053 would reinstate a two-thirds vote requirement for the Legislature to pass tax increases.  Originally put in place by an initiative in 2007, the legislature temporarily suspended the two-thirds requirement earlier this year and enacted a tax increase to help balance the state budget.  The current suspension of the supermajority vote will expire on July 1, 2011.  If I-1053 passes, the suspension will expire immediately, and the supermajority vote requirement will take effect on election day.

Read more about it and view the television news segment here.

I-1053 Supporters

I-1053 Opponents

The same poll asked voters about several other issues on the Washington ballot, but the results are less clear-cut.

• Initiative 1098 - new tax on incomes above $200,000 (single filers) or $400,000 (joint filers): 41 percent support, 33 percent oppose, 26 percent remain undecided.
• Initiative 1107 - repeal sales tax on candy, bottled water, and carbonated drinks: 42 percent support, 34 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.
• Referendum 52 - authorize bonds and continue a sales tax on bottled water to pay for projects to increase energy efficiency in public buildings: 34 percent support, 42 percent oppose, 24 percent remain undecided.

View the crosstabs for all four questions here.

Washington: Initiatives and the budget

An article in today's News Tribune takes a hard look at five initiatives and one legislative referendum on the November ballot in Washington, and the impact they could have on the state's budget if passed.

With the state already facing a $3 billion shortfall next year, four of the five initiatives would cut state revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars, possibily billions, if passed, and cut local government revenues by half a billion dollars over the next five years.  On the other hand, the fifth initiative -- Initiative 1098, a new tax on incomes above $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for joint filers -- would bring in as much as $2.2 billion in future years if voters approve it.  A legislative proposal to conduct energy upgrades on public and school buildings could cost as much as $937 million over the next five years for debt service payments.

Washington isn't the only state facing even more precarious fiscal conditions if initiatives pass this year.  In Colorado, the combined fiscal impact of three proposed initiatives (Amendments 60 and 61 and Proposition 101) would cut over $3 billion from the state budget.  This year's budget is $6.9 billion, so that's not small change.  In Massachusetts, a proposed sales tax cut would cost the state $2.5 billion annually.

In recent election years, voters have generally been unwilling to sign off on drastic revenue-cutting measures.  That includes 2008, when voters rejected a repeal of the state income tax in Massachusetts, significant cuts in personal and corporate income tax rates in North Dakota, and an opportunity to make federal taxes fully deductible on state income taxes in Oregon. 

Conveying the complex information that enables voters put the cost of proposed initiatives in the context of the state budget and existing programs and services is an ongoing challenge in all of the initiative states.  It is information that is too nuanced for the pro and con campaigns to address in a 30-second radio or television ad.  The idea of cutting taxes is appealing to most voters, yet the reality is that tax cuts mean cuts to programs that voters may value as well.  It remains to be seen how voters will weigh the costs and benefits of state programs and services in relation to a personal tax savings in 2010.

Second liquor initiative qualifies in Washington

Initiative 1105, which would allow private distribution and sales of alcohol in the state, has qualified for the ballot in Washington.  It joins Initiative 1100, which would also allow private alcohol sales, but does not require retailers to work through distributors.

This brings to five the total number of initiatives qualified for the November ballot in Washington.  Just one remains in signature verification -- Initiative 1107, which would repeal a tax on candy, soda pop, bottled water, and certain processed foods.  The taxes, some of them temporary, were passed by the 2010 legislature in an attempt to close a budget shortfall.  Signatures on this petition were gathered in just three weeks.

Third initiative qualifies in Washington

Initiative 1098, which would impose a new income tax on wages earned above $200,000 for an individual or $400,000 for a couple filing jointly, has been approved for the November ballot in Washington.  The measure would also reduce property taxes and certain business and occupation taxes.  Bill Gates Sr., father of the Microsoft founder, has been a champion of I-1098.

Petition fraud in Washington?

A Seattle Post Intelligencer blog reports that a petition circulator for Initiative 1098 is being investigated for submitting fraudulent signatures.  I-1098 would impose an income tax on Washington's highest earners.  State officials verifying signatures on the petitions noticed that several pages bearing about 350 signatures appeared to be filled out in the same handwriting and the same pen.  Further investigation revealed that while some signers were valid voters, the signatures did not match.  Law enforcement is investigating.

Even if the signatures at issue turn out to be fraudulent, it shouldn't affect whether I-1098 qualifies for the ballot.  Proponents turned in about 385,000 signatures, and just over 241,000 are needed to qualify.

This case calls to mind the fall of 2006, when five initiatives in three states were initially declared qualified for the ballot, then later removed after courts found evidence of fraud in the signature-gathering process.  Those initiatives dealt with affirmative action in Michigan; a state spending limit, judicial recall, and property rights in Montana; and a taxpayers' bill of rights in Oklahoma.

Washington: I-1100 certified for the ballot

Initiative 1100, which would close state-operated liquor stores and permit privately-owned retailers to sell liquor in Washington, has been certified for the ballot.  This is the first initiative to land on the November ballot in Washington this year.  I-1100 is sponsored by liquor retailers, including Costco.  A second initiative dealing with private liquor sales, I-1105, is sponsored by wholesalers.  It awaits signature verification.

Certification of Initiative 1082 was announced shortly after.  I-1082 would permit private worker's compensation insurance.

Two more initiatives were submitted, including the second liquor store measure, and await signature verification.