One in 2,038,069

by Tim Storey

Some may see this as this week's sign of the Apocalypse.  The "Arizona Voter Reward Act" has qualified for this November's ballot, and promises to be one of the more compelling sideshows of the fall's election season.  Backers of the initiative submitted far more signatures than necessary to qualify the measure for the ballot.  As previously noted here in the Thicket by Jan Goehring on May 23rd, the measure calls for using unclaimed money from the Arizona lottery to award $1 million to a voter selected at random in each election.  The goal is to provide an incentive for people to get off their keester and do their civic duty.  In 2004, voter turnout in Arizona was 2,038,069 making the odds of winning roughly 1 in 2,038,069 assuming the incentive doesn't send voter turnout through the roof, thus decreasing the odds of winning.  If the initiative survives legal challenges, it will be a far better wager than the odds of winning the grand prize in the Powerball which are 1 in 146,107,962.