The Thicket at State Legislatures

Halloween Ghost Stories from the Hawaii Capitol

by Karl Kurtz

I'm a little late in posting this on Halloween.  Trick or treaters are already coming to my door at home as I write this.  But I couldn't resist posting something about the second year of Halloween ghost stories from the Hawaii House Blog (for last year's stories, see "Hawaii Capitol Ghost Stories and Other Halloween Foolery").  On the Hawaii blog you can enjoy "The little boy who missed Rep. Ken Ito," "Ghost in Room 414" and "Governor Burns."  The latter refers to:

...[T]he legend that the spirit of former governor John A. Burns remains at the State Capitol, and that you know he is around by the smell of his cigar....

We would also feel something playing with our hair when we smelled the smoke. Nothing bad, just tickling, like there was someone behind you brushing a feather over the top of your head. I would try to brush it away but it would continue. Nothing spooky, just weird.

The Thicket readers can enjoy these stories as a post-Halloween treat--without the sugar.

Photo credit: This Old House

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

by Michelle Blackston

For political junkies election night is better than Christmas.

The anticipation of who will win, what will pass and what party gains control is more dramatic and emotional than waiting to see what Santa left under the tree. 

From ballot measures to battleground states to legislative party-control shifts, the 2008 election season is one for the history books – regardless of who wins the presidential race on Nov. 4.  NCSL is in the middle of it all, tracking the returns on election night and into the following days.

NCSL has the most comprehensive election-night coverage of all 50 states’ legislative elections and ballot measures. Policy analysts are monitoring the returns and posting updates on The Thicket and the StateVote 2008 Website.

To prepare for newsroom election coverage, reporters and bloggers can join in a free conference call Monday, November 3 to get the latest information and analysis on state legislative elections and ballot initiatives. NCSL’s state elections experts, Tim Storey and Jennie Bowser, will answer questions about battleground states, ballot measures and potential state legislature party control shifts on the eve of the election. Click on our press release to find out how to participate in this call.   

Here’s the skinny: Party control of the states is closely divided.  Democrats control 14 state governments, and Republicans have 10 states, while the remainder have divided control. That could all change.  Additionally, voters will decide 153 ballot initiatives in 36 states on election night. Issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion, anti-affirmative action and immigration headline state ballots across the country.

So, forget Christmas--election season is the most wonderful time of the year.
 

Do Ballot Measures Influence Voter Turnout?

by Jennnie Drage Bowser

Well, yes and no.  It has been pretty clearly demonstrated that in presidential election years, states with initiatives on the ballot see turnout that's about three to five points higher than states without initiatives on the ballot.  (See "The Educative Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout" by Caroline J. Tolbert and Daniel A. Smith.)

What is less clear is whether initiatives can influence who turns out to vote.  In other words, can the presence of a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot cause conservatives to turn out in greater numbers, and swing a candidate election to the right?  Or can a proposed minimum wage increase do the same for liberal voters and candidates?  Ohio in 2004 always comes up in these conversations.  In 2004, there was just one issue on the Ohio ballot -- a ban on same-sex marriage.  George W. Bush narrowly won Ohio by about two points, and many pundits gave credit to the presence of the marriage issue on the ballot and its perceived motivational effects on conservative voters.  While this is a popular point of view, the academic research on the question does not necessarily support it.  (See "Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures and the 2004 Presidential Election" by Daniel A. Smith, Matthew DeSantis, and Jason Kassel.)

Also important is the fact that there is no "Ohio" in 2008 -- there is no state with a single, highly controversial issue on the ballot that falls clearly along partisan lines.  Rather, most states have multiple issues on the ballot, some conservative-leaning, some liberal-leaning, and some non-controversial.  It would be difficult, if not impossible, to sort out how multiple issues might affect partisan voter turnout in any state's election this year.

In a nutshell, while ballot measures can increase turnout across the board, it is not clear that they can increase turnout among a particular slice of the voting public.  However, it is not likely that either side will stop trying to use ballot measures as a tool to influence voter turnout and the results of candidate races.

See "Ballot Measures 2008 Preview," a web page of NCSL's StateVote of which this posting is a part, for details on initiatives on the ballot next week.

Comparing Emerging Democracies in Nigeria and Brazil

by Karl Kurtz

During our training program for committee clerks of the Nigerian National Assembly (logo at left) last week, I was struck by similarities between Nigeria and Brazil, where I did some consulting work in the early 1990s.

For starters, both countries have the largest population of any country on their continent—Nigeria with 140 million people and Brazil with 189 million.  Both countries experienced military rule for 30+ years, ending with the emergence of new democracies and constitutions in Brazil (photo of National Congress at right) in 1988 and Nigeria in 1999. 

Both countries’ new constitutions are modeled on that of the U.S.  They operate under a separation of powers, presidential-style system.  The legislative articles of their constitutions read remarkably like any of America’s 51 federal and state constitutions.  Most American legislatures could operate under the rules of the Nigerian National Assembly.  I can’t read the Brazilian legislatures' rule books in Portuguese, but I suspect the same is true of them.

Both have federal systems with a roughly equal number of states (36 for Nigeria and 27 for Brazil) and artificially created, new capital cities (Abuja and Brasilia), which were started in the 1970s and 1960s, respectively, operate as special federal districts, and have rapidly grown to become major cities.  The architecture of both cities suffers from their young age and the uninspired design influences of their times.

These are the superficial comparisons.  More meaningful are the similarities in how politics actually work in both countries. 

New Exit Poll: Pumpkin Launch

by Meagan Dorsch

Can pumpkins catapulted into the middle of a North Carolina field determine who the next president of the United States will be? The residents of Statesville, North Carolina would say yes!

As part of the Crossroads Pumpkin Fest, pumpkins representing the two presidential and vice presidential candidates are catapulted from a trebuchet. The winner is the one that flies the furthest. It's called the Great Heads of Statesville Exit Poll and organizers say it is 80 percent accurate! 

So who won this year? According to the website, it was John McCain and Sarah Palin:

Senator McCain’s pumpkin spun to the right and bounced 81 yards from the catapult, while Governor Palin’s initially veered to the left, but pulled back to the right before landing 85 yards. On the Democratic side, both pumpkins stayed true to the left. The Senator Barack Obama pumpkin flew 79 yards, while Senator Joe Biden’s gourd sailed 83 yards. The total distance was 166 yards for the Republican ticket and 162 for the Democrat.

If you would like to see the video for yourself, please click here.

This "scientific exit poll" was first put to the test in 2004. My new friend, Joel Leonard, told me the John Edwards pumpkin head misfired and only went 12 feet while the others flew over 100 yards. This exit poll strategy is not just reserved for the presidential contenders. Pumpkins were also launched for the North Carolina U.S. Senate seat and the gubernatorial race.   

The best part is the launch that already took place (the one you can watch on the video) was just a preview for the media. The real Great Heads of Statesville Exit poll will take place at the fair on Nov. 1, just three days before voters "head" to the polls...or the trebuchets.

Photo credit: Trebuchet.com

Patrick Flahaven, Secretary of the Minnesota Senate, to Retire

by Karl Kurtz

In a letter to members of the Minnesota Senate, Majority Leader Lawrence Pogemiller announced that Patrick Flahaven, the second-longest-serving senate secretary in the country (after Alabama's McDowell Lee), will retire at the end of this year.  Sen. Pogemiller summarized Pat's career:

Pat was born in Willmar, Minnesota, and grew up in Sauk Center.  He earned his BA at the College of St. Thomas, and his MMA and MBA at Metropolitan State University. 

Pat began his career as a congressional aide for U.S. Congressman Joseph Karth.  He was the Minority Assistant Secretary for the 1971 Session.  Pat was elected in 1973 as Secretary of the Senate when Senator Nick Coleman was Majority Leader, and has served continuously since then.
 
As many of you are already aware, Pat is the second longest serving Secretary of any State Senate, nationwide, having been elected in 1973.  During his time with the Senate, Pat has gained a national reputation for his expertise in parliamentary procedures.  He has chaired many national commissions and participated in international programs for the exchange of parliamentary ideas.  His service includes past president of the American Society of Legislative Clerks and Secretaries; past chair of the Mason's Legislative Manual Revision Commission; past staff vice-president of the National Conference of State Legislatures; and participation in the Atlantic and Pacific Exchange Program, and the African and Romanian Parliamentary Training Programs.

We are fortunate to have had someone with such knowledge and respect working for the Minnesota Senate.  Pat’s institutional and procedural knowledge is invaluable and will be greatly missed.

Pat is indeed well-known and respected throughout the country, not only for his service as staff chair of NCSL in 1980-81 and his other formal positions but also because of his knowledge and curiosity about legislatures all around the world.  He is a true legislative junkie, and we, too, will miss him.

Lessons for African Politics--and the American Public

by Karl Kurtz

What lessons can Africa draw from the financial crisis in America?  That's the question that Dimeji Bankole, speaker of the Nigerian National Assembly, asked earlier this week in a guest column, "Five Lessons from America," in the Nigerian newspaper, ThisDay.

I happened to read this commentary because I have been in Abuja--along with my NCSL colleague, Corina Eckl, and Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau director Bob Lang--for the last week conducting a series of workshops on managing committees, budgeting and policy analysis for 120 clerks of the Nigerian National Assembly.

Speaker Bankole said that there were five lessons to be learned from the U.S. financial problems.  The first two were economic lessons (Bankole is an economist): that "markets do fail" and "government cannot afford to fail." 

But the next three were political lessons from the congressional response to the crisis.  I was struck by how similar these latter lessons are to those of NCSL's Trust for Representative Democracy.

Another Stimulus Package: What States Need

by Michelle Blackston

Congress is considering a second stimulus package, but what does that mean for states?

In this addition of the Buzz at State Legislatures Magazine, we have tapped the minds of experts at the National Conference of State Legislatures. We sit down with Michael Bird, federal affairs council at NCSL, to find out what states need from a second stimulus package: this one would be different from stimulus packages that were issued at the start of the new millennium.

Click here to listen to our podcast (6:34).

New Legislative Analyst in California

Mac Taylor, long-time deputy director of the Legislative Analyst's Office in California, was named the new Legislative Analyst yesterday, replacing Elizabeth Hill, whose retirement takes effect this week.  Mac is only the fifth Legislative Analyst in the 67 year history of the office.

The Changing Face of America

by Meagan Dorsch

The "browning" and "graying" of America. According to demographer and business professor Dr. James Johnson, those are the key demographic changes and shifts in our country.

Dr. Johnson says these changes could create challenges for state policy makers, fuel growth and impact certain regions of our country.

Dr. Johnson sat down for a one on one interview with Ed Smith, managing editor of State Legislatures Magazine, at NCSL's Legislative Summit in New Orleans.

You can read State Legislature's article on Dr. Johnson or listen to the entire interview by clicking on our podcast. The link to Dr. Johnson's presentation at NCSL's legislative summit can also be found here.