The Thicket at State Legislatures

"We came from beans, we can go back to beans."

by Karl Kurtz

Yesterday, as part of its series on the children of immigrants, NPR profiled California State Senator Abel Maldonado, who is one of the Republicans who broke with his party to cast the necessary votes to break California's budget impasse last month.  The story is one of three interesting articles about this legislator that I have read in the last month.

The NPR story begins:

In California, it can be tough to be a Republican. Tougher still if you're one who voted for the huge tax hike your party opposed. That's how state Sen. Abel Maldonado went from rising star to marked man in the GOP.

Maldonado was born in Santa Maria, but has stayed close to his Mexican roots. His family has a saying: "We came from beans, we can go back to beans," he says. His father never lets him forget the family's humble Mexican roots. Abel Sr. was a poor farmhand who came to central California on a World War II-era temporary worker program. The family spent years struggling.

The story goes on to discuss the price that Sen. Maldonado is likely to pay within his own party for his vote on the budget. It also references his hope that the vote might actually help him capture moderate Republican and Democratic votes if he runs for other offices.  But NPR didn't provide the crucial detail (for legislative junkies at least) about how Sen. Maldonado demanded that a constitutional amendment to create a blanket primary (in which all candidates of both parties run in the same primary) be placed on the ballot in return for his vote in favor of the budget. 

Figuring Out Annual Sessions in Arkansas

by Karl Kurtz

The Arkansas News Bureau writes about "Annual session amendment raises questions:"

Officials were puzzled Wednesday over voter approval of a constitutional amendment authorizing annual legislative sessions that got little attention or campaigning.

"I was shocked," Gov. Mike Beebe said. "Arkansas is one of the most restrictive states in the union on legislative term limits, and yet we voted for the annual session. That was the most shocking thing to me of the entire election."

With all precincts statewide reporting unofficial results Wednesday, the measure received 658,699 (69 percent) votes to 290,543 (31 percent) against.

Voters in 2002 defeated a proposed constitutional amendment that would have allowed annual legislative sessions.

The Arkansas Legislature now meets every other year, in odd-number years. The amendment authorizes lawmakers to also meet in even-numbered years to consider budget matters only in a 30-day session.

Despite passage of the amendment, the governor said he still plans to propose his biennial budget to lawmakers as scheduled on Nov. 13....

This change reduces the number of states that practice biennial (as opposed to annual) budgeting to 20.  Arkansas is the first state to switch from biennial to annual budgeting in the last two decades, according to Ron Snell's excellent article, "Annual and Biennial Budgeting: The Experience of State Governments."

Constitutional Conventions and Term Limits Repeal Fail, Annual Sessions Pass

Fourteeen states have automatic constitutional convention referenda in which voters periodically decide whether or not a constitutional convention should be called.  Three states had automatic constitutional convention referenda on the ballot yesterday, and all three went down to defeat by wide margins.  "Yes" votes were only 41 percent in Connecticut, 41 percent in Connecticut and 32 percent in Illinois. (A rose from The Thicket to Pat O'Grady.)

These results suggest that voters are not anxious to undertake wholesale rewrites of their constitutions and institutional structures.  However, in another institutional measure voters in Arkansas approved annual sessions.  This reduces the number of states that have biennial, as opposed to annual, sessions to five.

The proposed repeal of term limits in South Dakota failed.

What Voters Decided...So Far

by NCSL Staff

Voters across the country took action on 153 measures on Tuesday. As of this posting, here is a synopsis of their decisions.

With the economy clearly on their minds, voters rejected major tax cuts in Massachusetts, North Dakota and Oregon. At the same time, they were lukewarm on raising taxes. Voters rejected dedicated tax hikes in Colorado and Florida, but approved them in Minnesota and Montana. Fourteen statewide bonding proposals were approved in eight states totaling more than $13 billion. Only one bond issue, a renewable energy proposal in California, was rejected. A high-speed rail issue in California and a water project proposal in Maine are too close to call as of this posting.

Consideration of other revenue sources, such as gaming and lotteries saw mixed results. Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland and Missouri voters approved changes, all of which will generate new revenues for education, while they were rejected in Maine, Massachusetts and Ohio.

Abortion ban advocates suffered losses in all three states they had hoped to make gains (Arizona, California and Florida) while those supporting same-sex marriage bans saw success in Arizona, Florida and likely in California.

Michigan voters approved a medical marijuana proposal and a decriminalization proposal passed in Massachusetts but failed in California.

In election and legislative news, voters in Arkansas approved holding annual legislative sessions, with sessions in even-numbered years focusing on the budget. Maryland approved changes to allow early voting and easier absentee voting. South Dakota rejected repeal of term limits, Arizona rejected a legislative pay raise and Colorado voters kept the age of running for the legislature at 25.

In other news, voters approved renewable energy measures in Florida and Missouri but turned them back in California and Colorado. Voters in Nebraska approved an anti-affirmative action proposal while in neighboring Colorado, it's too close to call.

See a complete wrap-up here.

Ballot Measure Update

by NCSL Staff

Ballot Measure Update

Marriage
Florida's same-sex marriage ban is passing with 62 percent of the vote.

Marijuana
The Massachusetts question of legalizing the possession of marijuana is easily passing with 65 percent of the vote.

Tax Measures
Oregon's tax-cutting Measure 59 is failing with just 34 percent in favor of the vote.

Elections
Oregon's measure to change the state's primary to a Louisiana top-two system is failing.

We are entering results in the Ballot Measures Database as they become available.

Update on Arizona Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measure

We have a quick update on ballot measures. With half the votes counted, Arizona's ban on same-sex marriage is passing with 56% of voters saying yes.

Early Look at Abortion Ballot Measure Results

Here's an early look at some of the controversial ballot measures restricting abortion. The South Dakota abortion ban is failing to pass. As of 8:30 pm MST, the ban has 45% of the vote with 46% of precincts. Colorado's Amendment 48, which would define human life as beginning at the moment of fertilization, is failing with 24% of the vote in as of 8:30 MST.

South Dakota Term Limits Repeal Proposal

by Karl Kurtz

CNNPolitics.com had a nice story last week about the ballot measure in South Dakota to repeal term limits.  The leader of the repeal campaign is Sen. William Napoli who, before he became a legislator, had led the campaign in favor of term limits when they were approved in 1992.

"I wanted to get the old guys out of there and get some fresh blood in. I wanted term limits worse than anybody," said Napoli, the owner of an antique car museum in Rapid City.

The measure passed in 1992, and Napoli became one of its "beneficiaries" after he was elected to the House in 1994. He served the maximum of four two-year terms in the House before switching to the Senate in 2002.

Under South Dakota's term limits, he could seek re-election this year one last time, but he's not going to. On his way out, he is hoping to undo the term limits legacy by sponsoring a constitutional amendment to remove them.

"We've seen the results of term limits, and they have decimated the legislative process. They put too much power in the hands of the government, bureaucrats and lobbyists, and they've neutered the third branch," Napoli said.

The story goes on to summarize the history of repeals of terms limits in six states and New York City, drawing heavily on information from NCSL's Jennie Drage Bowser.

Polls show the South Dakota repeal measure trailing.  It's one of the many ballot proposals that we'll be following tonight.  We'll update this post before the night is out.

Do Ballot Measures Influence Voter Turnout?

by Jennnie Drage Bowser

Well, yes and no.  It has been pretty clearly demonstrated that in presidential election years, states with initiatives on the ballot see turnout that's about three to five points higher than states without initiatives on the ballot.  (See "The Educative Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout" by Caroline J. Tolbert and Daniel A. Smith.)

What is less clear is whether initiatives can influence who turns out to vote.  In other words, can the presence of a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot cause conservatives to turn out in greater numbers, and swing a candidate election to the right?  Or can a proposed minimum wage increase do the same for liberal voters and candidates?  Ohio in 2004 always comes up in these conversations.  In 2004, there was just one issue on the Ohio ballot -- a ban on same-sex marriage.  George W. Bush narrowly won Ohio by about two points, and many pundits gave credit to the presence of the marriage issue on the ballot and its perceived motivational effects on conservative voters.  While this is a popular point of view, the academic research on the question does not necessarily support it.  (See "Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures and the 2004 Presidential Election" by Daniel A. Smith, Matthew DeSantis, and Jason Kassel.)

Also important is the fact that there is no "Ohio" in 2008 -- there is no state with a single, highly controversial issue on the ballot that falls clearly along partisan lines.  Rather, most states have multiple issues on the ballot, some conservative-leaning, some liberal-leaning, and some non-controversial.  It would be difficult, if not impossible, to sort out how multiple issues might affect partisan voter turnout in any state's election this year.

In a nutshell, while ballot measures can increase turnout across the board, it is not clear that they can increase turnout among a particular slice of the voting public.  However, it is not likely that either side will stop trying to use ballot measures as a tool to influence voter turnout and the results of candidate races.

See "Ballot Measures 2008 Preview," a web page of NCSL's StateVote of which this posting is a part, for details on initiatives on the ballot next week.

2008: Passionate Debate on Same-Sex Marriage

by Michelle Blackston

While same-sex marriage hasn't garnered the national headlines that it did just a few years ago, it's still an issue this year on the ballots in a handful of states. Three states will vote on same-sex marriage this November -- Arizona, California and Florida.  An additional measure related to gay rights is on the ballot in a fourth state: Arkansas. Voters will consider whether unmarried couples, including same-sex couples, should be prohibited from adopting or serving as foster parents.

In Connecticut, the state Supreme Court on Oct. 10 legalized same-sex marriage, but that hasn't ended the debate. Every 20 years Connecticut voters decide whether to hold a constitutional convention and this year the measure is on the ballot. Opponents of gay marriage are rallying to get voters to support a constitutional convention in order to re-define the state's constitution to say marriage is between a man and a woman.  Instead of the courts, the issue of same-sex marriage could be decided by voters.

In California, the state Supreme Court earlier this year struck down a 2000 ballot measure that defined marriage as between a man and a woman. Now voters are battling over Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to ban gay marriage.

Just one state -- Arizona in 2006 -- rejected a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.  But the issue is back and voters in the Grand Canyon State will again decide whether or not to amend the Arizona Constitution to recognize marriage as a union of one man and one woman.

Whether it's on the ballot or in the courts, same-sex marriage continues to be a hot-button issue. Recent reports indicate it comes up during presidential election cycles in an effort to drive voters to the polls. This year is no different.

NCSL's election team has extensive background on ballot initiatives regarding same-sex marriage. Other information is available on civil unions and domestic partnerships.