by Karl Kurtz
From a legislative junkie's viewpoint, one of the most interesting aspects of the surprisingly one-sided rejection by the New York Senate of a gay marriage bill on Wednesday this week was this comment in the New York Times:
It is rare for legislation to reach the floor in Albany when passage is not all but assured. And initially, gay rights advocates resisted bringing this bill to a vote, fearing the consequences of a defeat. But they shifted that strategy over time, becoming convinced that an up or down vote was necessary so they could finally know which senators supported the bill.
New York Sen. Diane Savino makes a similar comment about the rarity of bills coming to the floor without assurance of passage in a YouTube video of her remarks on the bill. The Times story does a good job of explaining some of the complex politics of this bill that led to a situation in which senators' positions were not well known and that the outcome on the floor was uncertain.
Is the New York Senate unique in bringing to the floor only bills that will pass? I can't answer this question definitively. My guess is that New York is at one end of a continuum in this regard but that it is not unique. Factors that are likely to affect whether the outcome on the floor is predetermined are the powers of the top leadership to control the chamber's agenda, the extent to which the majority caucus takes positions on bills, the importance of the issue and whether it's an up-and-down vote not subject to a lot of amendment or compromise. In general, the more each of these factors is present, the more likely it is that passage is ensured on the floor.
In the case of the New York Senate vote all four factors were strongly present: It's a chamber with historically strong leadership, the majority caucus maintains tight control, the issue was important and highly visible, and it was a take it or leave it vote. That's what made the outcome interesting and different.
I checked several scholarly books and didn't find anything relevant on how often bills are defeated on the floor. Anyone else have comments or observations on this?



