Trends Suggest Competitive 2006 Election

by Karl Kurtz

In the June issue of AEI's Political Report, congressional election analysts Charlie Cooke, Stu Rothenberg and Norman Ornstein outline eight trends that have led them to up their estimate of the number of congressional races that will be competitive this fall. 

Six of the factors that they are taking into account are based on public opinion polls that show: increased voter enthusiasm for the upcoming election, a gain for Democrats in voters' party identification, declining approval ratings for both President and Congress, the high proportion of the public that believes the country is on the wrong track and a gain for Democrats in how people say that they will vote in the next election.

A seventh factor that they mention is that Federal Election Commission data show that both political parties are equally well-funded for the next election and will likely be able to pour money into competitive races.

The eighth factor?  In the 25 special elections to fill vacancies in state legislatures since 2004 in which the seats have changed parties, Democrats have picked up 18 seats and Republicans seven.  Fifteen of the 18 Democratic pickups were in districts carried by President Bush in 2004, while only two of the seven Republican gains were in districts won by Senator Kerry.

Comments

[Mark Rhoads]

The record of special elections that have gone to Democrats is interesting and does indicate a trend against Republicans. But it is not necessarily indicative of a trend that might translate to larger congressional districts that were drawn to be less competitive and that require more money. None of the 25 state legislative districts came close to the population of a congressional district.
The advantages of incumbency including franked mail at the congressional level are decidedly more powerful than those for incumbent state lawmakers.
Lastly, special elections normally have a much lower turnout than regular elections do. While low turnout elections often favor incumbents, they also favor highly motivated voters whose opinion carries greater weight in the outcome. What killed Democrats in the 1994 elections at both the congressional and state legislative level was the fact that Republicans were more motivated to vote and Democrats stayed home. To some extent, the opposite trend is showing up in these special elections.