by Tim Storey
Voters in Texas House district 97 went to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement in a special runoff election for the seat of 19-year Republican incumbent Representative Anna Mowery who resigned in August. Democrat Dan Barrett defeated Republican Mark Shelton 52% to 48%, switching the seat from R to D.
This could mean nothing beyond its implications for the Texas House and a simmering battle for speaker of that chamber. It could mean that one candidate ran a good campaign and won in a low turnout election.
Or, it could be something to keep an eye on as a harbinger of next year's elections at the legislative level. If there is a trend of special elections breaking for one party and switching party control consistently in one direction, it could foretell how the electorate will break in 2008 when 80% of all legislative seats are up in the 44 states holding regular elections.
From December of 2005 to June of 2006, states held 42 special legislative elections. In 13 (31%) of those races the seat switched party control. In 11 of the districts that switched, Democrats took a previously Republican held seat--almost all in districts that George Bush carried in 2004. Republicans claimed two legislative special election wins in districts previously held by Democrats, although both were in districts that George Bush overwhelmingly carried in 2004.
In November of 2006, Democrats performed better in the election than in over ten years. So, keep an eye on special election between now and late summer of 2008 as a sign of what might happen in November of next year. From a national electoral standpoint, Texas HD 97 may mean nothing or might be the canary warming up.
And one more thing as we peer ahead at 2008 elections, they take on even more importance because in 28 states, seats will be decided next year that will NOT be up for election again until AFTER the 2010 redistricting cycle.
Photo by mjanean, courtesy of Flickr.
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