Small Gains for Democrats in the West

by Karl Kurtz

State legislative elections in the West in 2008 did not bring about dramatic change. Of the four chambers that switched party control, three had been either tied before the election or became tied afterward.

The tied chambers either before or after the election were the Montana Senate, which moved from a tie to Republican control after a three-seat GOP gain, the Montana House, which switched from Democratic control to a 50-50 tie, and the Alaska Senate, which moved to a 10-10 tie from a Republican majority.

The fourth legislative chamber that changed, the Nevada Senate, switched control after Democrats picked up two seats to take a slim 12-9 majority in a chamber that Republicans previously controlled 11-10. The headline of a story in the Wall Street Journal, "Nevada Turns Left This Time, But Future Course Is Uncertain," cast doubt on how long Democrats can hold that state.

Because of the close margins going into the elections, none of these party switches was a surprise. The Montana Legislature is the champion party switcher among all the states. In the 54 elections from 1902 to 2008 either the House or the Senate switched party control 34 times. In electoral history it is more surprising if neither chamber in the Montana Legislature switches party control than if one of them does. The Montana House is currently listed as tied but could possibly change to the Republican column since one race won by the Democrats by 20 votes is in a recount.

In many of the smaller states in the West party labels are less important than elsewhere in the country. Democrats in rural western states are more conservative than some eastern Republicans. Legislative proceedings in these states are often more collegial and less partisan. As an example of this, Alaskan senators did not wait for the last votes to be counted to determine if their chamber would be in a tie or controlled by the Republicans: a coalition of Republicans and Democrats similar to the one that led the nominally GOP-controlled Senate during the last session went ahead and elected new leadership for 2009.

In the region as a whole, Democrats had a net gain of 24 seats, the smallest of any region other than the South. Half of those 24 seat pickups came in already heavily Democratic New Mexico (gain of +6D), California (+3D) and New Mexico (+3D). In Arizona, where there were at least rumors of a possible takeover of the House by Democrats in advance of the election, Republicans gained a net of two seats and solidified a majority of 35-25.

In gubernatorial elections in the region, incumbent Republican John Huntsman was reelected in Utah, and Democrats Brian Schweitzer and Christine Gregoire won reelection in Montana and Washington, respectively. Idaho and Utah are the only states in the West with unified Republican control of the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature. Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington now have unified Democratic control, while Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Montana, Nevada, and Wyoming have divided management of state government.

The state that has made perhaps the most remarkable transformation over the last two election cycles is Colorado. After the 2002 election, Colorado Republicans held the governorship, both chambers of the Legislature, both U.S. Senate seats and a 5-2 margin in the state's congressional delegation, and they had won the presidential race in the state two years before. Six years later those numbers are exactly reversed, with Democrats in control of all of those offices and the winners of the presidential race.

A few morsels from western elections:

In Colorado Senate district 14 voters faced a tasty choice between Bacon and Fries--incumbent Democrat Bob Bacon and Republican challenger Matt Fries, that is. Bacon won the cholesterol battle.
With a margin of 23 Democrats to 2 Republicans, the Hawaii Senate ties with the Rhode Island House as the most heavily Democratic chambers in the country, both at 92 percent Democrats. Taking both chambers together, though, the Ocean State (90.3 percent Democrats) edges out the Aloha State (89.5 percent).
The Idaho Senate is the most Republican Legislature in the nation with 80 percent of the seats in GOP hands. The Kansas Senate is in second place with 78 percent and the Utah Senate in third (72 percent). Looking at both chambers combined, Idaho is 74 percent Republican, Utah 71 percent, and Kansas 66 percent.
Two years ago Montana Rep. Krayton Kerns (R) won election by three votes. This year his margin was 26 votes, just two more than needed to avoid a possible request by his opponent for a recount. At this rate, he will win the next election in a landslide by 50 votes.