Republicans See Signs of a Comeback in Limited 2009 Elections

by Tim Storey

The number of legislative seats up in 2009 legislative elections was the lowest of the decade with only two chambers up for grabs in the off-year part of the cycle. And even though no chambers changed hands and the overall gains were relatively small, it was a good year for Republican legislative candidates.

Republicans surged in Virginia not only winning back the governor’s mansion but likely adding six seats in the House of Delegates bringing their majority to 59 R – 39 D with two independents. In one tight race, Republican Ron A. Villanueva appeared to win by a scant 16 votes with 100% of precincts reporting and pending a recount as required under Virginia law if requested by the losing candidate.

Voters in New Jersey elected a new Assembly with the GOP cutting into the Democratic majority by one seat leaving the chamber at 47 Democrats to 33 Republicans headed into 2010. The Assembly will be getting new leadership even though Democrats held on to the majority because Speaker Joseph Roberts did not seek reelection. And there are rumblings of a leadership coup in the New Jersey Senate as well.

A handful of states held special legislative elections to fill vacancies or unexpired terms, and the results had to please the GOP. In the 13 special elections across the country where an outcome was evident from early returns on November 4th, only three seats had changed party hands, and all of those shifted from Democrat to Republican--in Michigan, New Hampshire and Washington. It is still too early to declare that this is a trend pointing to where voters are headed in the 2010 election; however, if Republicans continued to win special elections into next year, it will be an ominous sign for Democrats headed into the last election before redistricting.

Republicans scored an obscure victory in the ultimate battle for control of 2010 redistricting in Pennsylvania by taking majority control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in the 2009 election. Under the redistricting system in the Keystone State, a five person commission redraws legislative boundaries following the 2010 census. The commission starts with two Republicans and two Democrats who must select a fifth person as a chair. If the four partisan commissioners are evenly split and unable to agree on a fifth person as chair, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court fills the slot which becomes the tiebreaking member in voting on new district plans. If the commission deadlocks in the initial selection of a chair and the court acts in a partisan fashion when choosing the tiebreaking member, it could favor the GOP in redistricting.

The GOP narrowed the overall advantage that Democrats have in governors by adding both New Jersey and Virginia to their column. When 2010 legislative sessions kick off, there will be 26 Democratic governors and 24 Republican. New Jersey was the only state where overall political control shifted in the 2009 regular elections going from unified Democratic control to divided with the election of Republican Governor Chris Christie. Democrats now control all of state government in 16 states; Republicans hold eight states, and 25 are divided. Since the mid-1940s, the average for divided partisan control of states has been 23. 

Despite Republican pick-ups since the 2008 election, Democrats still control exactly 55 percent of all legislative seats and Republicans hold 44 percent.  The state political landscape will surely change in November of 2010 when 83 percent of all legislative seats will be in play along with 37 governors.

NCSL's updated partisan control table is available here.

Video recap with Tim.

Comments

[Mark Hobratschk]

Which way are you counting the NY Senate after the two Dems flipped?

[Brian Kirwin]

Actually, recounts are not required under state law. A candidate must request one.

[Tim Storey]

Brian, thanks for the clarification about Virginia. I should have known better than to rely on an article I read about the race as an authority on Virginia recount procedures. I've corrected the post.

As for New York, I am double-checking, but we still show the Senate as 32 D - 30 R even after all of the Albany drama earlier this year. Since the original post, I have added a link to NCSL's partisan composition table.

[California]

The party composition table has the CA Senate up as 26D-14R. It's actually 25D-15R.

www.sen.ca.gov

[California]

The CA Assembly partisan count also needs to change. It should be 50D-28R, one independent who left the Democrats, and one vacancy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_State_Assembly