Effects of Top Two Primary System in Washington

by Karl Kurtz

An article in today's Sacramento Bee, "Little evidence in Washington that 'top two' primary moderates politics," in advance of next Tuesday's vote on a ballot proposition in California modeled on Washington's primary system reports on some useful research. The top two primary system, practiced in Washington and Louisiana, allows all candidates to run in the same primary with the top two finishers going to a runoff, regardless of party.

...[T]he experience in Washington so far offers little evidence that Proposition 14 proponents' promises of increased turnout and more moderate officeholders will pan out in California.

"There was nothing dramatic enough that happened to make someone stand up and say, 'Wow, this is really different,' " said Travis Ridout, a political science professor at Washington State University.

On the frequency of candidates form the same party appearing in a runoff:

Same-party runoffs have occurred in Washington:  Eight of 125 state legislative races in 2008 had two candidates of the same party in the general election.

But backers of Washington's measure said those instances benefited centrist candidates because runoff participants must appeal to a broader spectrum of voters in order to win.

"To no one's surprise, in each and every case like that the more moderate won," Ammons said.

On the tendency for party leaders under the top two system to discourage candidates from their own party in order not to split the vote:

A study by two economics professors at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Wash., found that the total number of candidates running in primaries dropped after the top-two system was implemented.

One reason for the drop was that multiple candidates from the same side of the spectrum can split the vote, allowing, for example, two Republicans to emerge as the top vote-getters in a center-left district.

That scenario created "an incentive for the major party organizations to discourage 'too many' candidates from entering the primary contest for a particular office with that party's label," economists John H. Beck and Kevin E. Henrickson wrote.

The article captures the key arguments for and against a top two primary system.

Comments

[M Bailey]

what is missing is that this was a 3rd or 4th attempt by the voters to preserve some semblance of control over the primary by the voters (as contrasted to the political parties) after several battles in the court. WA didn't go to the top 2 primary as a first choice by a long shot. We did it because we felt it was as close as we could get to the original primary system wherein the top vote getters from each party advanced. - my opinion