by Karl Kurtz
An interesting article by Roby Brock in The City Wire from Fort Smith, Arkansas highlights the importance of state legislative candidate recruitment--even 15 months before the next election.
With 135 legislative seats technically up for grabs, Arkansas Republicans and Democrats are knee-deep in strategies that will determine likely control of the state House and Senate chambers in 2012.
You won't see an overload of TV commercials or find your mailbox full of "vote for me" literature until this time next year, but today Democratic and GOP leaders are in heavy campaign mode for candidates.
"While the campaigns themselves will clearly matter, the battle for control of each house of the state legislature will likely be decided in the next three months as prospective candidate make their decisions about whether or not to run," said Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College and a polling partner with Talk Business.
"Neither party has a great track record of recruiting candidates — the Democrats have never had to do it and the Republicans never have done it. But, if one of the two parties can develop an effective candidate recruitment strategy, they will be starkly advantaged in 2012," Barth said.
If this early recruitment activity seems unusual for Arkansas, it is. The Arkansas House and Senate are two of only three legislative chambers in the country that have remained under continuous Democratic control since Reconstruction (the other is the Mississippi Senate). Up until recently Republicans have not seriously contested elections in Arkansas. But in the 2012 elections, with a current margin of 54D-46R in the House and 20D-15R in the Senate, control of both chambers in Arkansas will be in play.
"I'm paying close attention to the recruitment battles all across the state," said Republican political strategist Clint Reed with Little Rock-based Impact Management Group. "Literally, races are being won and lost during this time. South Arkansas and northeast Arkansas will likely produce some of the biggest electoral battles."
Reed says the two regions of the state are areas where Democrats have long held a grip on local elections, but he sees that evolving in recent years and expects 2012 to continue the trend.
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