The Thicket at State Legislatures

A Higher Proportion of Former State Legislators in Congress from Term-Limited States

By Karl Kurtz

The proportion of former state legislators serving in the 113th Congress is 49 percent, according to a story in this month's State Legislatures magazine. That number has been consistently within one or two points of 50 percent for decades. Here are the top five 10 and bottom five 10 states in sending former legislators to Congress (House and Senate combined):

Here's the complete list of former members of state legisalatures serving in Congress compiled by Michael Bird and Jeff Hurley in NCSL's Washington office.

Continuing a trend that I first noted in "An Unexpected Benefit of Term Limits" in The Thicket in 2009, state legislatures with term limits send a higher proportion of former members to Congress than do non-term-limited legislatures: an average of 57 percent in the 15 term-limited states compared to 48 percent in all of the others.

Here's what I said (corrected) about the reasons for this differential in 2009:

The reason for this connection between term limits and legislators moving to Congress is not complicated. Legislators in term-limited states who want to continue a political career will constantly watch opportunities to run for other offices and will be more willing to take risks (giving up their term-limited legislative seat) than will legislators in non-term-limited states.

For those of us who think that service in state legislatures is valuable training for Congress, this is an unexpected benefit of state legislative service term limits.

More on Legislative Turnover

by Karl Kurtz

Our posting a couple of weeks ago, "A Majority of State Legislators May Have Two Years or Less of Experience in 2013," generated considerable interest, so I thought we would provide a bit more  information about the history of membership turnover in state legislatures, paying particular attention to the differences between term-limited and non-term-limited states.

Thanks to Professors Gary Moncrief (Boise State University), Richard Niemi and Lynda Powell (both of University of Rochester), we have a nice picture (click to enlarge) of how membership turnover has changed over time in houses of representatives. (For simplicity, I am presenting data only for houses because the interpretation of the data for these chambers is a little more straightforward than for senates, where many members have previous experience in the house.)

Note that before the first term limits were enacted in 1990 the differences between the state houses that are now term-limited and the ones that are not were random.

As term limits began to take effect and force legislators out of office in the mid-1990s, the gap between the two types of legislatures began to grow. By 2000, when term limit provisions had been enacted in 15 states, the gap was 19 percentage points (36 percent in TL states and 17 percent in NTL states), and the difference has remained consistently in the range of 15-20 points ever since.

The chart grapically shows Tim Storey's and my point about 2010 turnover and anticipated high turnover after the 2012 election. Within each decade, the highest rates of turnover were recorded after decennial redistricting--the years ending in "2." In 2010 turnover due to the Republican landslide of 2010 was nearly as high as it was in the redistricting year of 2002 (higher in the TL states). If membership change in 2012 is close to the average for redistricting years, we likely will have the high rates of inexperience we previously forecasted.

Primary Results in California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota

by Karl Kurtz

In addition to the closely watched and widely reported Wisconsin recall election, five other states had state legislative primary elections on Tuesday this week.

Over on our sister blog, Prop*50, Jennie Bowser reported on the apparent narrow defeat of the tobacco tax initiative in California and the surprisingly comfortable passage of Proposition 28, a modification of that state's legislative term limits. In state legislative races in the Golden State, no incumbents were defeated in the primary. The first trial of the state's top two (or "jungle") primary will result in either two Democrats or two Republicans on the ballot in nine of 53 congressional seats and 12 of 100 state legislative races in the November general election.

In Iowa, redistricting forced two Republican incumbents into running against each other in two races. Rep. Pat Grassley topped Rep. Annette Sweeney in one race and first-term Sen. Shawn Hammerlinck defeated veteran Sen. Jim Hahn in another. The only other incumbent who lost was two-term Rep. Erik Helland, who was defeated by challenger Jake Highfill. Republicans, who hope to gain unified control of state government by capturing the Senate this fall, had many more primary races than did the Democrats. Many of them involved ideological challenges between conservative and moderate Republicans. The Des Moines Register concluded:

Many of the Republican races revealed a divide within the party, where self-described conservatives took on candidates with establishment credentials whom the conservatives derided as RINOS: Republicans in Name Only.

The results: inconclusive. In seven House and Senate races featuring a more conservative candidate challenging an incumbent or establishment-backed opponent, four went to the moderates with support from Gov. Terry Branstad and others in the GOP hierarchy, while just three were won by socially conservative or tea party-aligned insurgents.

In Montana, one senator and three house members were defeated. The losers were Sen. Carmine Mowbray and Reps. Bob Wagner, Alan Hale and Tony Belcourt. Belcourt, however, lost by only three votes with a possible recount.

A Majority of State Legislators May Have Two Years or Less of Experience in 2013

by Karl Kurtz and Tim Storey

The combination of unusually high turnover in the membership of state legislatures after the 2010 election and anticipated high rates of churn after the redistricting election of 2012 makes it likely that approximately half of all state legislators will have served for two years or less at the start of 2013 legislaitve sessions. The 2010-12 cycle almost certainly will result in the highest rate of turnover in state legislatures over two elections in the last 50 years.

How do we arrive at this conclusion? The 2010 nationwide surge of Republican gains in state legislatures resulted in a high water mark of 29 percent for membership turnover in a non-redistricting year. For the upcoming 2012 election, the average rate of turnover in legislatures in years ending in "2" in the last three redistricting cycles is 30 percent. We have no reason to believe that 2012 will be any different.

Combining these two election results, it seems likely that about half of all legislators will be freshman or sophomore members in their chambers. Unfortunately, though, we can't simply add together the numbers from the two elections to produce a more definite number and avoid weasel words like "may" or "seems likely." There are four reasons for this:

1. The 2012 election could turn out to be different from previous post-redistricting elections. Predicting any kind of election results is notoriously difficult.
2. Many of the seats that will turn over in 2012 also had new members after the 2010 election. The result in each of these districts will be a legislator elected with no previous experience, but if we add 2010 and 2012 turnover together, we would be counting that seat twice in our tally of inexperienced members in 2013.
3. Some new members elected to one chamber in a state will have had experience serving in the other chamber, so we must be careful not to exaggerate the inexperience levels.  For example, 29 of 38 members (76 percent) of the Michigan Senate were new to that body after the 2010 election. But 14 of them had previous experience in the House, so the real rate of legislative inexperience in the Senate was 39 percent (15 of 38 members). 
4. In a relatively small number of cases, legislators with previous experience who have been out of the legislature may return to run again. This is especially likely in the nine states with term limits based on consecutive service (not lifetime limits). For example, despite eight year (consecutive) term limits for the Ohio House, Speaker William Batchelder is now in his 37th year of legislative service because he sat out for a while and then returned to the General Assembly. Our turnover data would have counted him as a new member in the year that he returned.

Despite these caveats, we are confident in our conclusion that very close to half or more of all state legislators will have less than two years of experience after the 2012 election. Of course, not every state will have high levels of inexperience, but it is a warning to leaders and legislative staff (and NCSL and other national organizations) that there is a need to expand training and professional development opportunities for the influx of freshman and sophomore legislators.

Coincidentally, over at Governing magazine Lou Jacobson posted a column on the same subject today. It's a good piece that goes into more depth about anticipated turnover in specific states and the consequences of inexperience. We take a somewhat different view of the causes of this unusual two-election turnover cycle, though. We suggest that it is more due to the Republican sweep of 2010 and redistricting in 2012 than it is term limits and redistricting. Term limits have of course increased turnover, but the waves of turnover come in different years in different states and cannot by itself account for the anticipated 2010-12 turnover phenomenon.

Arkansas Designates New Leaders for 2013

by Karl Kurtz

Rep. Darrin Williams speaks to reporters after his selection as speaker designate, as current Speaker Robert S. Moore looks on. (John Lyons, Arkansas News photo)

After adjourning its 2012 fiscal session on Friday last week, the Arkansas House of Representatives met and designated Rep. Darrin Williams (D) as the next speaker of the House for the 2013-14 biennium. If the Democrats maintain the majority after the 2012 elections, Williams will become the first African American speaker in Arkansas, as reported in The Thicket last week.

But the "if" clause in the preceding session is an important one. As the Arkansas News reports,

If Republicans win a majority in the House in November, they could block Williams from being installed and instead seat a Republican speaker. Williams told reporters he believes lawmakers would be making a mistake to “change horses in midstream,” saying he will start planning for the next session right away.

“It costs us about $30,000 a day to be here. If we wait to start planning after November, then that’s just more money we’re going to cost the state and that’s more days we’re going to be here,” he said.

[Rep. Terry] Rice [the Republican who ran against Williams for speaker designate] has said there will be “two people maybe getting ready” to lead the House.

Current House Minority Leader John Burris of Harrison predicted today that if Republicans win a majority, they will seat Rice, not Williams, as speaker. In doing so they would be following the wishes of voters, he said.

The Arkansas Senate selected Sen. Larry Ferguson to be the president pro tem designate a year ago at the end of the 2011 session.

This turn of events caused us to review how and why Arkansas chooses its leaders so far in advance. Among the fifteen states that have term limits, Arkansas is one of three that have the most stringent limts: six years in the House and eight in the Senate. Before term limits took effect, Arkansas had a tradition of rotating speakers every two years based on  seniority. The most senior member who had not yet served as speaker would become the top leader in the next session. Committee chairmanships were also based on seniority.

New Report Says Term Limits Detrimental to Missouri Legislature

by Karl Kurtz

A new report from the Harry S Truman School of Public Affairs at the University of Missouri concludes that term limits have had a negative effect on the independence and decision-making capability of the Missouri General Assembly. Here's a portion of the abstract:

Legislative term limits were approved by Missouri voters in 1992 and took full effect in the House in 2001 and in the Senate in 2003. This report...concludes that term limits has had a negative impact on the level of knowledge in the legislature, has changed but not reduced the influence of lobbyists, has created a new and non-legislative career orientation among legislators, and has weakened the General Assembly as a legislative body. Term limits, then, achieved none of the sponsors’ principal objectives and has significant negative consequences that were not anticipated by either supporters or opponents.

The author of the report, David Valentine, associate director of the school and a former research director for the Missouri Senate, has compiled a number of useful tables and charts that conclude:

• The average within-chamber tenure of Missouri legislators in 2011 is about what it was in the 1920s

• The tenure of legislative leaders, including the chairs of the appropriations committees, ranges from two to five years--about half of what it was before term limits.
• The loss of experienced members has resulted in a significant loss of institutional memory.
• The legislature has become a stepping stone for legislators who want to continue to have careers in politics. "If you're a political animal, you're already setting your sights on something else instead of focusing on your job and doing the work of your constituents," says former Rep. Patrick Naeger.
• Lobbyists have had to change how they operate but have adapted to the new environment.

The report is consistent with findings of other studies of the effects of term limits in various states.

Farewell to Center for Governmental Studies

by Peggy Kerns 

The California-based Center for Governmental Studies (CGS) has closed. Goodbye to CGS and thanks. Thanks for 28 years of rattling the cages with thoughtful, nonpartisan and provocative research on governance reforms.  Thanks for ideas on campaign finance laws, state budgeting, ballot measures and higher education - to name a few. Thanks for the hundreds of studies and more than 70 books and reports. You will be missed. A victim of the economy and loss of foundation funding, the center will continue access to its website and publications.  

The center was guided by a two-fold principle that “21^st century democracy can only be improved by efforts both to reform the underlying structures of government and to use new communications technologies to inform citizens and help them participate in government,” said CGS founders, Tracy Westen and Bob Stern.  The center’s research focused primarily on California, but its impacts went far beyond the state’s borders.

Its July 2011 report, Citizen Legislators or Political Musical Chairs: Term Limits in California, concluded that term limits in California have failed as term-limited politicians bounced around to other political offices.

Legislators' Sources of Information

by Karl Kurtz

"What are the sources that legislators tap for information about public policy?" was an intriguing information request that I recently received. I found the answer(s) in the results of two surveys of state legislators. One is a national survey of all state legislators that NCSL, the Council of State Governments, the State Legislative Leaders Foundation and a team of academic political scientists conducted in 2002 as part of our study of the impacts of term limits. The other is a sample survey of legislators from 19 states published in a book by John A. Hird, Power, Knowledge and Politics: Policy Analysis in the States, 2005.

Unfortunately, these two studies did not ask about exactly the same information sources. In fact the top source on NCSL's survey-- the legislator's personal expertise--does not appear at all in Hird's study, and Hird's #1 source, constituents, was not asked about in our NCSL survey. The two surveys also used different scales: NCSL's question was based on a scale of 1 (not at all important) to 5 (very important), while Hird used a 1 (never important) to 7 (always important) scale.

But the really interesting thing is that the rank order of the responses by legislators to the sources that were common to both surveys was exactly the same. Legislative staff were first, followed in order by other members, leaders, lobbyists, executive agencies, national organizations, the governor, and the media. Click on the chart below to enlarge it.

As one of my colleagues said after seeing this chart, "It must be true if two surveys got the same results."

The results of the NCSL question about the sources of information that legislators rely on were not previously reported in our book, Institutional Change in American Politics: The Case of Term Limits.

Roses from The Thicket to Katherine Barrett, Richard Greene and Lynda Powell.

Of Term Limits and Legislative Leadership 2011

by Karl Kurtz

Twenty-nine of the 38 Michigan senators will be new members in the 2011 session, although 14 of them have previous experience in the House. That turnover rate of 76 percent in the Senate is the highest that we know of in any legislative chamber since the first half of the 20th century. The task of steering that chamber will fall to the newly elected Republican majority leader, Sen. Randy Richardville, who was first elected to the Senate in November 2006.

Many states use the term "dean" to refer to the senior member of a legislative chamber. Usually it refers to someone who has had decades of service. However, a story on the new Democratic minority leader in the Michigan Senate, Gretchen Whitmer, notes that in addition to being the first woman leader in the Senate, she is the dean of that body because she was first elected in March 2006, outranking her Republic counterpart, Sen. Richardville, by a few months.

Despite the fact that Ohio House members are limited to four two-year terms, the chamber's Republican caucus has been able to nominate a 35-year veteran of the House to serve as speaker. Rep. William Batchelder served in the Ohio House, 1969-98, leaving the House as speaker pro tem due to term limits. Because Ohio's term limits are not lifetime limits, he returned to the House after the 2006 election and will become speaker in 2011.

 

Legislative Leadership Changes for 2011

by Karl Kurtz

In follow-up to Meagan's Friday links to newspaper stories about new legislative leaders, here are some more leadership selections for 2011 involving interesting story lines like defeats of incumbent leaders or historical firsts:

• Long-time West Virginia Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin became acting governor last week after Gov. Joe Manchin was sworn in as a member of the U.S. Senate. Under the West Virginia Constitution, acting Gov. Tomblin continues to serve as Senate president, although he has said that he will not participate in Senate affairs, leaving the Senate to be run by President Pro Tem Joseph Minard. There is considerable disagreement among legislators and legal scholars as to whether Tomblin will serve as governor until the next general election in 2012 or whether a special election will be called before then.
• In Nevada, Sen. Mike McGinness was chosen as the Republican leader of the Senate over Sen. Bill Raggio, who had held that position for 30 years. Republican caucus members were critical of Raggio for his support of tax increases in 2009 and his endorsement of Democrat Harry Reid in his bid for reelection to the United States Senate over the Republican nominee, Sharron Angle.
• The Utah House selected it first woman speaker, Becky Lockhart, who narrowly defeated the incumbent speaker, Dave Clark. Clark had served as speaker for two years and was chair of NCSL's standing committees in 2007-08. In a curious sidelight, Rep. Lockhart has volunteered in the past as a tour guide in the state capitol.
• Minnesota Senate Republicans have chosen Sen. Amy Koch to be the Senate's first woman majority leader, the top post in that chamber. Another woman senator, Michelle Fishbach, will serve as Senate president.
• Another "first woman" to serve in a state's top leadership position is Tennessee Republican Rep. Beth Harwell who has been selected by her caucus to serve as speaker. The incumbent Republican Speaker Kent Williams was elected to that post two years ago by Democrats in a chamber with a one vote margin in favor of the Republicans. The Republican caucus subsequently stripped him of his party credentials. Williams was reelected to the House this year as an independent but chose not to run for speaker.

See NCSL's Unofficial State Legislative Leaders for the 2011 Session for a more complete list of leaders that have been named so far.